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Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – March 30 – April 3 2009

Big week ahead in the forex market. Non Farm Payrolls, ECB rate decision and the G20 summit talks will be the highlights of the week. There are lots of other major indicators this week, that begins with important indicators on Sunday night! Here’s what’s cooking for us this week:

Sunday, March 29th: There are important figures as early as Sunday. New Zealand’s Building Consents might set the direction of the NZD/USD after the recent rally.  

In Japan,  Prelim Industrial Production is expected to be bad, even very bad (-9.1%) but less than 10.2% – last month’s figure.

Monday, March 30th: British  Net Lending to Individuals will be in focus, as well as speeches from Jean-Claude Trichet and BOC’s Mark Carney.

Near the end of the day, British  GfK Consumer Confidence is expected to be left unchanged. Japanese  Household Spending is expected to fall by 4.6% (annually adjusted). Unemployment Rate in Japan is expected to rise to 4.3%.

Tuesday, March 31st: New Zealand’s  NBNZ Business Confidence is highly respected. In Europe, the  German Unemployment Change is expected to rise, causing concern.

Canada will publish its GDP – it’s expected to show contraction of 0.6%. In the US,  Chicago PMI is expected to stay unchanged, while  CB Consumer Confidence is expected to rise slightly.

Near the end of the day, Japanese  Tankan Manufacturing Index, a major figure, is expected to fall by 55 points, much worse than last quarter. Australian Retail Sales are expected to shrink by 0.5%.

Wednesday, April 1st: Who will be April’s fool? In Britain,  Halifax HPI is expected to show a slowdown in real estate plunge, and to drop by only 2%. Manufacturing PMI in the UK isn’t expected to change, and to remain low at 34.9.

In the US,  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change,  a warm up for the NFP, is expected to fall by 660K. More interesting figures are the  ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected to stay stable, and Pending Home Sales expected to rise, for a change. Housing data has been good lately in the US.

Thursday, April 2nd: G20 summit talks are due all today, and comments from there will shake the markets.

Australia starts this long day, with Trade Balance, which is expected to show a surplus.

ECB’s Jean-Claude Trichet is widely expected to lower the  Minimum Bid Rate from 1.5% to 1%. The big moves for the forex market will happen when he talks at the ECB Press Conference.

In the US,  Unemployment Claims are expected to stay stable, at 653K. This is another preview to the NFP on the next day.

Friday, April 3rd: Britain will supply an important figure in the morning – Services PMI is expected to rise slightly to 43.6.  

Non-Farm Employment Change, king of forex indicators is expected to drop by 662K, after falling 651K last month. Unemployment Rate, published at the same time as the NFP, is expected to rise to 8,5%. Looking back at previous months, this figure was always disappointing. So, Unemployment could be worse.

The week isn’t over with NFP:  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will also be published, expected to stay low at 41.9. And just before the forex market unwinds, Ben Bernanke will speak, and will probably say something to shake the markets.

Happy Forex Trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.