The upcoming forex trading week will come to peak on Wednesday, when American Advance GDP and the FOMC Statement will rock the markets on the same day. Here are some scenarios.
Forex trading this week features quite an uncommon collision of events: on the same day, April 29th, two major American events will occur:
Advance GDP is published at 12:30 GMT. According to current estimations, it’s expected to plunge yet again, starting 2009 in a bad way and falling by 4.9%.
In the last quarter of 2008, American Gross Domestic Product fell by 6.3%. This is the final figure. The initial figure was quite different, and showed a much smaller contraction: only 3.8%. The revised figure plunged to 6.6%, before stabilizing on 6.2%.
Current expectations are for a bad first quarter. If this really happens, or if the contraction is above 5%, this will trigger risk aversion, and the dollar will rise. The risk factor is dominant in the forex market, and a bad figure means a strong dollar.
If the stimulus package already kicked in, or improved American housing will be felt, contraction can be smaller. Advance GDP that shows a contraction of less than 4%, optimism will send traders to “risky” currencies, away from the “safe haven” greenback.
The interest rate is widely expected to stay unchanged, at the low of lows. So I’ll skip the Federal Funds Rate, and move straight to the accompanying statement.
Contrary to the GDP, this statement is harder to analyze. Last time, the Federal Reserve made a stunning announcement – they increased their balance sheet and announced the spilling of $1 trillion dollars into the markets.
This dollar devaluation statement sent the dollar down. Although it has recovered since then, this money spilling’s echoes from March 18th are still heard in the markets.
This time, they can do a variety of things:
- Talk about the results of the previous moves – dollar shakes and stabilizes.
- State that they’ll start retreating – spill less money – the dollar climbs.
- Announce more unconventional dollar devaluating measures – the dollar falls.
- Your scenario?
After last time’s surprise, it’s really very very to tell what Ben Bernanke’s guys will come up with. This will sure be an exciting event.
Both events, Advance GDP and the FOMC Statement, will shake the greenback, thus shake the whole market. If both are dollar-negative or both are dollar-positive, this day will set the direction of dollar for a very long time.
If they are mixed, expect high volatility until the end of the week, before the dollar stabilizes.
Anyway, Wednesday, April 29th, will be a fascinating day!
For the rest of this week’s events, check out the Forex Weekly Outlook.