Forex Weekly Outlook – April 27 – May 1 2009
Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – April 27 – May 1 2009

This week, features interest rate decisions from the US, Japan and New Zealand. Advance GDP in the US will also be in the limelight, as well as the  ISM Manufacturing PMI. Let’s dive into the important figures for the upcoming forex trading week.

Monday, April 27th:  GfK German Consumer Climate will start the forex trading week, and it’s expected to stay unchanged. Later, Jean-Claude Trichet will speak. Will the Euro continue the upward trend?

Japanese Retail Sales will close this day of thin data. It’s expected to dive by 4.8% in Japan’s quickly shrinking economy.

Tuesday, April 28th:  Swiss  UBS Consumption Indicator will shake the Swissy. Later,  German Prelim CPI will probably reflect deflation in Europe.

In Britain,  CBI Realized Sales is expected to get somewhat better. In the US,  CB Consumer Confidence is expected to improve, from the deep lows of 26. In New Zealand, the  Trade Balance will be released.

Wednesday, April 29th: Trading will be slightly thinner, since Japanese banks are closed  in observance of Showa Day.  In New Zealand,  NBNZ Business Confidence will shake the kiwi.  

It’s a big day in America.  Advance GDP for  the first quarter is expected to show a contraction of 4.9%, after last quarter’s final figure of -6.3%.

In the evening, a new interest rate will be set in the US.  Federal Funds Rate is expected to stay unchanged, at a maximum rate of 0.25%. The more interesting event is the  FOMC Statement. After last time’s $1 trillion printing statement, anything can happen…

Also in New Zealand, a new interest rate will be set. Here, there still room for cuts.  Official Cash Rate in NZ is expected to fall from 3% to 2.5%. The accompanying  RBNZ Rate Statement will also be closely watched by traders.

More from New Zealand,  Building Consents are due. The kiwi will shake on all these figures.

This long day doesn’t end yet:  GfK Consumer Confidence in Britain is expected to show a small improvement. And in Japan,  Prelim Industrial Production is expected to stabilize, after plunging by 9.4% last month.

Thursday, April 30th: A rate decision is due in Japan.  Overnight Call Rate is expected to stay at almost nothing – 0.1%. Traders will focus on the accompanying  Monetary Policy Statement. Later, the Yen will move by the words spoken at the  BOJ Press Conference.

In Britain,  Nationwide HPI is expected to fall by 1.2%. This important figure will might set a direction, after last week’s critical week for the Pound.

In Europe,  German Unemployment Change is expected to stand at 65K. This is an important figure, since there are elections in Germany this year. Also note the European  Unemployment Rate (late figure) and the  CPI Flash Estimate for Europe, which is expected to stand at 0.7% (annually adjusted).

In Canada, monthly GDP is predicted to show a small contraction of 0.1%.  

In the US,  Unemployment Claims are expected to stay at 640K, like last week. Another interesting figure in the US is the  Chicago PMI, which is expected to get better.

Near the end of the day, Japanese  Household Spending is expected to fall by 2.6%.  Tokyo Core CPI, an early inflation indicator, is expected to stand at 0.2%.

Friday, May 1st: It’s Labor day in Europe, so trading will be thin. In Britain,  Halifax HPI will serve as good indicator for housing. Later,  Manufacturing PMI is predicted to improve, and climb above 40.

In the US,  Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be of interest, and isn’t expected to change from the initial read. Another important figure in America is the  ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected to rise to 38.

These are the major economic indicators this week. I’ll post a daily outlook to dive into more figures every day.  

Happy Forex Trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.