Home EUR/USD – Will it Get on its Feet Again?

EUR/USD – Will it Get on its Feet Again?

After a rollercoaster week, the Euro will receive important figures throughout the week: German Factory Orders, Industrial Production, ECB Monthly Bulletin and two speeches by Jean-Claude Trichet. Here’s an overview of the major Euro figures + a quick technical look on the EUR/USD.

Talks about abandoning the dollar as the world’s reserve currency are here again. This could lift the Euro. Read about it  New Reserve Currency Threatening the Dollar Again.

Here are 4 important indicators for the Euro this week:

  1. German Factory Orders: Europe’s biggest economy has a huge industry that is export oriented. Factory orders represent future production. After a surprising rise of 3.3% last month (when expectations were negative), it’s expected to stay unchanged this time. It’s the first indicator of the week, on Monday at 10:00 GMT. Since there aren’t too many indicators this Monday, this figure is significant for EUR/USD.
  2. German Industrial Production: The complementary figure for the factory orders – it represents the current production. After surprising and staying stable last month, it’s expected to slide back to the negative zone, and fall by 0.2%. Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. French Industrial Production is published on the Wednesday, but it has less impact due to the smaller size of the French economy, and to the late release date. The all-European figure is published on Friday.
  3. ECB Monthly Bulletin: This release provides a look into the data that the heads of the European Central Bank see when making their decisions and their statements. This can shed some light on the interest rate decision last week. European Minimum Bid Rate stayed at 1%. The bulletin is published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT.
  4. Jean-Claude Trichet’s speeches: ECB President will speak on two occasions in Sofia, Bulgaria. He’ll speak at the  University of National and World Economy and later at the  30th anniversary of Bulgarian National Bank, in Sofia. The timing is interesting – at the same time, finance ministers of the G8 countries will meet in Italy to discuss the crisis. As we’ve seen in the last weeks, Friday is a wild day, so Jean-Claude Trichet’s words will be taken very seriously.

Those are the major events for the Euro. EUR/USD will shake on American figures as well, with Trade Balance on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Wednesday being the key figures this week.  

EUR/USD Technical Look

The Euro has been rising in a very neat way since mid April. Taking a broader look, it has bounced off the bottom that it formed at the beginning of March, when it fell to 1.2457.

Last week, EUR/USD made a big move above 1.41, which served as a resistance line, and went as high as 1.4338, which served as a new resistance line for two days in row.  Afterwards, the big comeback of the dollar sent the Euro tumbling down, even below 1.40. EUR/USD closed at 1.3967.

A major support line appears at 1.3750 and major resistance at 1.4338.

Another note: The Euro is highly affected from the dollar’s mood, being the most popular pair on the planet. So, slips from Timothy Geithner or others make shake this pair.

For a broad overview of this week’s events, check out the Forex Weekly Outlook.

Liked this post? Vote for it on ForexFactory.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.