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Forex Daily Outlook – August 27th 2009

After yesterday’s whopping Durable Goods Orders, could the GDP also surprise? A busy day expects us. Let’s see what’s up for today:

Will the dollar strength continue today? Will the Pound continue it’s weakness? Many British figures will set the direction today.

Australia starts the day with the  CB Leading Index. It’ll be followed by a more important release:  Private Capital Expenditure is expected to fall by 4.7% in the second quarter. The Aussie will shake around this release.

For more on AUD/USD, read the Australian Dollar Outlook.

German Ifo Business Climate made a nice surprise yesterday. Today, Germany releases the  GfK Consumer Climate, which is predicted to edge upwards from 3.5 to 3.8 points.

Later in Europe,  M3 Money Supply is expected to show slowing growth and print a 3.3% rise instead of 3.5% last month. Also note the German Prelim CPI which is released slowly in all the German states.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook.

In Britain, it’s time for the  Nationwide HPI which is due today. This major housing release is expected to show a rise of 0.6% after a jump of 1.3% last month.

Later in Britain,  Prelim Business Investment is expected to fall by 3.6% in the previous quarter, better than the last quarter’s fall of 7.6%.

The most important British release for today is  CBI Realized Sales, which are expected to to remain negative, but improve from -15 to -12.

At night, the last British release is due:  GfK Consumer Confidence is expected to edge upwards in the negative zone, and rise from -25 to -24.

For more on the GBP/USD, read the British Pound Outlook.

American Prelim GDP, or the second release of the GDP for the second quarter, is expected to be revised downwards from a contraction of 1% to 1.4%. A surprise sure is possible.

At the same time, 12:30 GMT,  Unemployment Claims are published and are expected to decrease from 576K to 562K. Recent disappointments in jobless claims cause fears that this figure could be worse.

Also note a speech from FOMC Member  Jeffrey Lacker which will deliver an economic outlook.

Building Consents are very important for the New Zealand dollar. After a fall of 9.5% last month, this figure should show some recovery.

Japanese  Household Spending rose by 0.2% last month, but this isn’t expected to last – a fall of 0.5% is predicted.

At the same time,  Tokyo Core CPI is expected to fall by 1.8%, worse than last month. Note that this figure is annually adjusted. National Core CPI is also predicted to show a fall – of 2.1% – worse than last month’s 1.7%.

Last but not least, Japanese Unemployment Rate is expected to be on the rise – 5.5% instead of 5.4%. Some countries envy that….

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.