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EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD Outlook – September 7-11 2009

Range trading was the name of the game this week. EUR/USD that closed the week in the same place as last week. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events, and a technical analysis for EUR/USD. Will it break the range this week?

EUR/USD forex graph with uptrend channels

EUR/USD Range Trading

Last week’s rate decision didn’t surprise anybody. Also the other indicators were more or less inline with expectations. Let’s see what events await us this week:

I must that no indicator stands out this week, but these ones will still move EUR/USD.

  1. Sentix Investor Confidence: This wide survey of investors and analysts starts the list of European indicators. It hasn’t shown optimism since June 2009. Pessimism is expected to be reflected in this month’s survey as well, with a negative number of -13.5 rather than -17 last month. Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT.
  2. German Factory Orders: More orders from factories mean more demand. In Europe’s largest economy, factory orders have leaped in the past two months unexpectedly. These surprises made economists more optimistic this time – they’re expected a nice rise of 2% this time. Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT.
  3. German Trade Balance: Germany’s export oriented economy usually enjoys a surplus in trade. This surplus has grown up to 11 billion in recent months, and is expected to stay at the same levels. Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT.
  4. German Industrial Production: Contrary to other German releases, this figure disappointed last month when it showed an unexpected decline last month. This makes this month’s release more interesting. It’s expected return to growth and rise by 1.6% this time. Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT.
  5. German Final CPI: The Euro zone is suffering from deflation more than other regions in the world. But in the last release from the German states, prices showed a rise of 0.2% rather than a fall. The Final CPI is expected to confirm the initial read. Any weaker result will hurt the Euro. Published on Wednesday at 6:00 GMT.
  6. French Industrial Production: Europe’s second largest economy is also recovering at a nice pace. In the past two months, unexpected growth was seen in France’s industrial production. After rising by 0.3% last month, a 0.5% is predicted this time.
  7. ECB Monthly Bulletin: The monthly bulletin exposes the data that the ECB was reviewing before making the rate decision. This insight on current economic conditions as bankers see it is interesting to watch. Published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT.
  8. German WPI: The  Wholesale Price Index is another indicator for inflation. Contrary to the German CPI that showed a small rise, the WPI fell by 0.5% last time. Hopes are for a rise this time of 0.3%. Published on Friday at 6:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD traded in a 200 pip range: 1.4177 to 1.4377. It fell under 1.42 this week, but didn’t go very far. All in all, it closed the week around the same place it began it – 1.4294.

In last week’s EUR/USD outlook I wrote that I wasn’t sure where it’s going. Well, this hasn’t changed…

The uptrend channels that I’m following are wide enough, and still hold for another week. The cap of 1.4444 as a resistance line is also out there.

Here are two recent EUR/USD technical opinions:

  • From Casey Stubbs,  of Winners Edge Trading.
  • From Mohammed Isah, of  of FXTechStrategy.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.