British Pound Outlook – September 7-11 2009
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British Pound Outlook – September 7-11 2009

After a bad start, the Pound made a comeback and finished the week higher. It still trades in a range, like many other pairs. This week’s interest rate, as well as 9 other indicators will set the direction of the Pound. Here’s an outlook for this week’s key events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD forex chart with updated support and resistance lines:

GBP/USD Technical Analysis, September 2009

Last week’s  Manufacturing PMI, and the negative  Net Lending to Individuals figure  took the Pound downhill, while the Services PMI helped it recover near the end of week. Let’s see what indicators will shake the Pound this week:

  1. Halifax HPI: Delayed from last week, this important housing indicator will probably published this week, although the exact timing is unknown.It’s importance comes from the base of this index – the bank’s internal data. After rising by 1.1% last month,  Halifax HPI is predicted to rise more modestly – by 0.5% this time.
  2. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: The  British Retail Consortium releases this early retail sales indicator before the government does, though this doesn’t consist of all the retailers. It rose nicely in the past two months, and should rise again. Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT (midnight UK).
  3. RICS House Price Balance: At the same time of the  BRC Retail Sales Monitor release, RICS publishes the percentage of property surveyors reporting a price movement. This indicator hasn’t been positive in over two years. In the past 5 months, this figure was better than early expectations, reaching -8.1% last time. An almost  insignificant drop of 0.1% is expected this time. If it turns positive, it’ll be a boost for the British Pound.
  4. Manufacturing Production: This major indicator is published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. Manufacturing consists of 80% of the industrial production, which is released at the same time – therefore overshadowing it. After surprising with a 0.5% rise last month,  Manufacturing Production is expected to continue upwards, with a 0.3% rise.
  5. Nationwide Consumer Confidence: This survey of consumers isn’t large in its scale, but has a good reputation. Since May, this index was on the rise and made a positive surprise each time. This time it’s expected to rise from 60 to 62 points. Published on Tuesday at 23:00 GMT.
  6. Trade Balance: Britain traditionally has a deficit in its trade balance. Last month, it posted a slightly bigger than expected deficit – 6.5 billion. It’s expected to return to the previous figure of 6.3 billion this time. Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT.
  7. NIESR GDP Estimate: The  National Institute of Economic and Social Research checks the pulse of economy on a monthly basis, building p quarterly GDP before the official release. In the past two months, they showed a contraction of 0.4%. They haven’t shown growth in over a year. Will they show an improved result for August? Answers on Wednesday at 23:00 GMT.
  8. CB Leading Index: 7 major economic indicators build up this composite index. In the past three months, this index was positive, rising by 1% last time.  The Conference Board publishes this index at 9:00 GMT, close to the rate decision.
  9. Rate Decision: The BoE surprised last time when they announced that the Quantitative Easing program will be expanded. The Pound suffered a great deal from this decision. As the  Official Bank Rate  is expected to remain at the historic low of 0.5%, the decision regarding bonds and the exact wording of the  MPC Rate Statement will have a strong impact on the Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT.
  10. PPI Input: The producer price index fell by 1.4%, much more than expected. The fear that Britain is also diving into deflation is strong. This month’s PPI is predicted to rise by 0.6%. Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound had a bad start – when British bankers returned to work on Tuesday, GBP/USD fell below the 1.62 resistance line, and went as low as 1.6111, the lowest in two months. But then it made a comeback and finished the week at 1.6389, more than a hundred pips higher.

In last week’s British Pound Outlook, I’ve updated the minor support line to 1.6150, but the Pound went 40 pips under before making a comeback. I’m now lowering the line to 1.60, which was the bottom point two months ago and also a round psychological number.

Below 1.60,  1.58 is a strong support line. If GBP/USD makes a big and real break down, it’ll aim for 1.58.

On the upside, 1.6660 continues to maintain its position as an ultra strong resistance line. Only a dollar collapse could send GBP/USD above this line. Above that, August’s high at 1.70 is the next point, and far in the horizon, 1.74 awaits major Pound strength.

I continue to have a negative sentiment on the British Pound, despite the gains it made.

Mohammed Isah also has an interesting technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.