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AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Outlook – October 5-9 2009

After reaching new highs and retreating, a very busy week awaits the Aussie. A rate decision, employment figures and 4 other indicators are released during the week. Here’s an outlook for major events in Australia, and an updated technical analysis.

AUD/USD forex graph, with support and resistance lines inside. Click to enlarge:

AUD/USD October 2009

Strong growth in retail sales, 0.9%, helped the Aussie reach new highs, but weren’t enough to stop the greenback. This week, some indicators are released very early in the week. They are followed by major indicators. Let’s see what’s up:

  1. AIG Services Index: The Australian Industry Group is the first to publish any news this week. This survey of about 200 companies is similar to PMI releases. A score above 50 marks growth and below 50 marks expectations for contraction. Three months ago, this index was above 50, but it dipped again since then. After last month’s score of 48, it’s expected to rise above 50. While this isn’t a very important indicator, the timing, 22:30 GMT on Sunday, makes it important.
  2. ANZ Job Advertisements: This employment indicator is based on ad space in the media, showing how companies are willing to spend on hiring. After over a year of squeezing ad space, this indicator grew last month by 4.1%. The scenario of growth should repeat itself this time as well. Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT.
  3. Trade Balance: Australia’s trade balance is negative in the past 4 months, after traditionally showing a surplus. Also this time, it’s expected to be negative, with a deficit of 0.91 billion, less than last month’s 1.56 billion deficit. Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT.
  4. Rate decision: Glenn Stevens and his colleagues at the RBA will probably leave the interest rate unchanged. In a speech before the parliament, Stevens hinted that the rates should “get back to normal”, but this isn’t expected to be so soon. The Cash Rate of 3%, the highest rate in the West is expected to be kept. Hints about future policy are expected to be released in the accompanying RBA Rate Statement. Published on Tuesday at 3:30 GMT.
  5. Home Loans: This housing figure is lagging behind other, positive, Australian figures. Last month, home loans were a great disappointment, falling by 2%, after 9 months of growth. This time, they’re expected to drop by 0.4%. Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT.
  6. Employment Change: This Australian employment figure is very volatile. After a surprising rise in the number of employees two months ago, it fell badly last month. This month, the drop in the number of employees is expected to be 9.7K, about a third of last month’s drop. Published on Thursday at 00:30, together with the unemployment rate.
  7. Unemployment Rate: Contrary to the employment change figure, this one is very stable. In fact, the unemployment rate has been steady on 5.8% for three months in a row, beating expectations. Yet again, economists are pessimistic, expecting a rise to 6%. A positive surprise sure is possible here, something that will boost AUD/USD. Published on Thursday at 00:30.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD pushed forward at the beginning of the week reaching new YTD highs of 0.8860. It later gave in to the dollar’s strength and returned to the middle of September’s trading range closing at 0.8642, very close to last week’s close.

Looking up, the next hurdle is 0.8950, which served as a support line in 2008. Further up, on the road to parity, 0.9300 is out there, but the Aussie moves slowly.

On the downside, the area of 0.85, which served as a strong resistance line in recent months, is now the first major support line. Further down, another former resistance line works as support – 0.8230. All the lines are marked in the graph.

I continue to have a strong bullish sentiment for the Aussie.

AUD/USD has been climbing nice and steady. The Australian dollar is backed by a strong economy, which enjoys trading with China rather than bad banks.

Also Mohammed Isah is Aussie-bullish. Check out his interesting analysis.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.