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Forex Daily Outlook – November 5th 2009

Big day today in forex. One day after the American rate decision, Europe and Britain have their own, with tensions mounting towards the British decision in particular. And there’s lots more. Let’s review the events for today:

Australia continues to provide strong starts for the day – Trade Balance is expected to show a larger deficit – of 2.13 billion this time. Later in Australia, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will make a public appearance, and might soften the dovish comments made after the second rate hike.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD Forecast.

In  Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate is expected to improve to -37, still in the negative zone. CPI is predicted to grow by 0.6%, following a freeze last month.

British Manufacturing Production is expected to turn positive and rise by 1.1% this time. Also the Industrial Productions (which includes mostly manufacturing) is expected to rise by 1.2% after falling last time. But these figures are only a prelude to the rate decision.

The Bank of England has run out of money on the QE program. They must decide now if they enlarge the Asset Purchasing Facility or not. Expectations are for an expansion of 50 billion pounds, to 225 billion. Regarding the interest rate, there’s no chance of raising it now. The economy is doing bad, and there’s no fear of inflation. The Official Bank Rate will remain at 0.5%.

Last but not least in Britain, the NIESR GDP estimate is released sometime today. This unofficial release proved itself last month by predicting the ongoing recession in Britain, against the optimism of many economists. So, this release should be watched closely.

For more on the British Pound’s exciting week, read the GBP/USD Forecast.

Also in Europe, a rate decision awaits traders. Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1%, and not announce anything special. Europe is recovering steadily. An update about the economy will be made at the ECB Press Conference.

Read Casey Stubbs’ updated post about the Euro, which is back above the resistance line.

Before the rate decision, European Retail Sales will be released. Since Germany and France already released their figures, this won’t have a big effect. Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.3% after falling by 0.2% last time. Read the EUR/USD Forecast for more on the Euro’s week.

In Canada, Building Permits are predicted to rise by 1.4%, much less than last month’s leap of 7.2%. This figure is very volatile. Later in Canada, Ivey PMI is predicted to edge down to 60.1 points. This release is important for the loonie. For more on the Canadian dollar, read the USD/CAD Forecast.

In the US, Unemployment Claims are expected to ease to 523K, following last month’s rise to 530K. After the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed yesterday, this can also disappoint.

Before the day ends, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollar will speak. Will he raise the issue of interest rates? Keeping the rates unchanged last week didn’t meet expectations.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.