The calendar is crowded today. The main events are a rate decision in Europe and American retail sales. Let’s see what’s up for today:
No British figures are released today. Note that the GBP/USD rose above the 1.6270 resistance line (at the time of writing). The main reason for this is the rise is the NIESR GDP estimate that unofficially reported that the British economy expanded in Q4. The 0.3% growth means that (unofficially) Britain is out of recession.
Read more in the British Pound forecast.
Australia provides a strong start to the day with its employment numbers. Australian Employment Change is predicted to show a rise of 10,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate is expected to edge back up to 5.7%.
A surprise in these all-important numbers could push the Aussie beyond the important 0.9322 resistance line. For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
In Europe, German Final CPI is predicted to confirm the early number of a 0.7% rise. European Industrial Production is predicted to rise by 0.6% after dropping by the same scale last time. But these are only a warm up for the main event.
Jean-Claude Trichet isn’t expected to move the interest rate. The European Minimum Bid Rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 1% for another month. There are too many problems in Europe, that prevent a rate hike in the near term. The focus will move to the ECB Press Conference due later on, which will shed some light on the struggling Euro zone, despite the fact that Europe is out of recession.
For more on the Euro/Dollar, check out the EUR/USD forecast.
In the US, Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.4% after a strong move last time. Core Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 0.3%. Retail sales pushed the dollar higher last month.
The first release of weekly Unemployment Claims following the disappointing NFP are expected to show a small rise in claims: from 434K to 438K. Also in the US, Import Prices are predicted to drop by 0.1% and Business Inventories are expected to edge up by 0.1%.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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