Home USD/CAD Outlook – January 18-22
Canadian Dollar Forecast

USD/CAD Outlook – January 18-22

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The Canadian dollar tested new ground but closed the week almost unchanged. The upcoming week is quite busy, with a rate decision being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for the 8 events that await the Canadian dollar, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

USD/CAD forecast

Carney disappointed in the past by leaving the schedule for a rate hike unchanged. An acceleration will boost the loonie, but also an acceleration in prices is necessary for this to happen. We have all of it this week. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. This figure represents the flow of cash into Canada – the trust in the economy. After a leap to 13.5 billion, last month saw a drop to 5.8 billion. Securities purchases are predicted to ease once again, but moderately -to 5.2 billion.
  2. Leading Index:Published on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. Although this compound index is mainly based on figures that are already release, it still surprises from time to time – last month’s rise of 1.3% was double the expectations. All in all, this index is positive. The trend is expected to continue with a rise of 1.1% this time. It comes just before the rate decision.
  3. Rate decision:Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Mark Carney’s team is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25% for the seventh time in a row. The big question is the timing of the rate hike. Contrary to his American counterpart, Carney has been very clear about the predicted timing – the end of Q2. Well, now Canada has stronger inflation, and a rather healthy job market. Will he hint about a faster schedule? The BOC Rate Statement might supply answers.
  4. CPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:00 GMT. As aforementioned, inflation is picking up in Canada. This helped the loonie last month. Economists are expecting a small rise once again: 0.2% after last month’s 0.5% rise. Also Core CPI picked up with a 0.5% rise, and is now also expected to edge up by only 0.2%.
  5. Manufacturing Sales: Published on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. This indicator of the industry isn’t very stable, and usually moves strongly. The rise of 2% last month is expected to be followed by a similar rise of 1.6%.
  6. Wholesale Sales: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. This indicator is far from the consumers, but has an impact as well, and is usually moderate. In the past two months, the value of sales rose by 0.2% and 0.3%. It’s now predicted to rise by 0.4%, continuing the trend.
  7. BOC Monetary Policy Report: Published on Thursday at 15:30 GMT. Three days after the rate decision, the central bank shows it’s view of the economic situation, with prospects for future policy. 45 minutes after the release, Carney will hold a press conference to discuss the data.
  8. Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. This important figure has posted nice gains in the past three months, with a 0.8% rise last time. It’s expected to take a break from rising and drop by 0.3%. Core Retails Sales haven’t seen such strong gains – only 0.2% last month. This rise is expected to be repeated this time. This figure is important for USD/CAD as no other numbers are published on Friday.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD began with a retreat to the 1.04 resistance line before dropping and reaching new lows at 1.024, bouncing off the support line of 1.02. It finally roe and closed at 1.0290, not far from last week’s close.

The loonie is range-trading between 1.02 and 1.04. 1.02 was the low in 2009 and has been tested during this week as well. 1.04 was the support line of the previous range, and serves as an excellent resistance line as well. The lines haven’t changed since last week.

Above 1.04, the previous resistance line of the range, 1.0750, is the next line. Further above, 1.0850 was a peak before the pair entered the range. Even higher, 1.1130 was tested several times during 2009 and is another important line of resistance far in the distance.

Looking below, the ultimate line of support is parity: 1:1. USD/CAD parity was last seen in 2008, and is quite close once again. A break of 1.02 would lead to a test of parity which is not only a round number but also worked as support and resistance in the past.

I continue the bearish sentiment for USD/CAD.

Things are looking fine in Canada. The loonie depends a lot on the rate decision for more fuel.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.