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Forex Daily Outlook – January 21st 2010

Another busy day is due with Chinese figures in the limelight. Let’s see what’s up for today. Will the dollar continue raging?

EUR/GBP, which I’ve been following in the past week is definitely continuing the  free fall, breaking more support lines on the way down. The main reason is the weakness of the Euro.

Chinese GDP will supplies a strong start for the day. Q4 GDP is now estimated to rise at an annual level of 10.7%, after 8.9% in Q3. This strong growth has already been addressed by the Chinese central bank, which began a tightening policy. Also note Chinese Industrial Production which is expected to rise by 19.8% (year over year).

The currency that feels the Chinese impact in the strongest manner is the Australian dollar. Strong Chinese growth will help the Aussie, that is tumbling down in recent days. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Europe, purchasing managers’ indices will pour in during the morning. French Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will start. The same figures are then released in Germany and later for all of Europe. All the indices are above 50 points, which means expansion and all of them are expected to edge up.

Also in Europe, a speech by Axel Weber is due. Weber is the head of the German Bundesbank and a candidate for replacing Jean-Claude Trichet. His words often mover the markets. For more on the Euro, that lost another stronghold,  read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, ZEW Economic Expectations will shake the Swissy.

In Britain, Public Sector Net Borrowing is predicted to drop to 18.6 billion, after jumping to 20.3 billion last time. Later in Britain, CBI Industrial Order Expectations are expected to rise from -42 to -29, still in the negative zone.

The British Pound enjoys relative stability after the good employment figures yesterday. Note that Mervyn King’s dovish words hurt the Pound. One of colleagues, Paul Tucker, will make a public appearance in London, and could move the currency.  For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

The Canadian dollar has lost a significant resistance line to the US dollar – 1.04, after a dovish rate decision and weak inflation. Today, Wholesale Sales are expected to rise by 0.4%.

Later, the Bank of Canada will release the BOC Monetary Policy Report which usually tends to shake the loonie. It will be followed by a press conference held by Mark Carney, head of the BOC.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In the US, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index made nice gains and reached 22.5 points last time. It’s predicted to drop down to 18.1 points. Weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to remain almost unchanged at 444K. A rise above 460K or a drop under 430K will move the markets.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.