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Forex Daily Outlook – February 3rd 2010

A busy day expects forex traders. This includes the “mini-NFP” in the US and critical employment numbers in New Zealand among many figures from all over the world. Let’s see what’s up for today.

British Nationwide Consumer Confidence starts the day early with an expected rise from 69 to 70 points. The Pound hasn’t really enjoyed the good figures it received up to now.

Later in Britain, Services PMI is expected to remain stable at 56.6 points. For more on the GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

A day after the disappointing rate decision, Australia’s Trade Balance is expected to be negative as well, with a growing deficit. Up to now, AUD/USD remained above 0.8735, December’s low.

Many figures are released this week in Australia, For an outlook on the next events, read the AUD/USD forecast.

European Retail Sales are expected to turn positive and rise by 0.4%. Yesterday’s German retail sales were OK, and rose by 0.8%. Also in Europe, Final Services PMI is predicted to confirm the initial read of 52.3 points.

For an update technical analysis of the Euro, I recommend reading Casey Stubbs’ recent article. There’s an important rate decision and more events up the road. Check out more in the EUR/SUD forecast.

In the US, Challenger Job Cuts supply an early jobs indicator. The more important one comes from ADP. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is now predicted to show a loss of 31,000 jobs, much less than last month’s 84,000 loss. This is sometimes considered an indicator for the NFP, but it isn’t always so.

Later in the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to turn positive and rise above 50 points, meaning expansion. This important indicator will sure boost the dollar if it rises from 49.8 to 51.1 points.

Job figures are due in New Zealand near the end of the day: Employment Change is expected to show a drop of 0.1% and the Unemployment Rate is expected to jump from6.5% to 6.8%. Note that these numbers are critical to the kiwi, as they are quarterly figures, and not monthly as in other countries. At the time of writing, NZD/USD got away from the important 0.70 line.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.