EUR/USD Outlook – May 3-7

Another crazy week will probably be seen. Apart from the debt issues, we have a rate decision and many more events. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Credit downgrades for Greece, Portugal and Spain hurt the Euro this week, but fresh hope helped it recover. The Greek tragedy will stay with us for a long time. OK, let’s see the events:

1. Final Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 8:00 GMT. The continent’s manufacturing sector showed a nice advance according to the initial read – 57.5 according to 600 managers surveyed for this index. This number will probably be confirmed.
2. Axel Weber talks: Starts speaking on Monday at 9:00 GMT. The leading candidate for replacing Trichet proved to be a very influential figure in handling of the Greek crisis. His speech in Frankfurt is likely to move the Euro.
3. German Retail Sales: delayed from last week. After a surprise rise of 1.1% last month, Europe’s largest economy is expected to show a drop of 0.2% in retail sales this time. Germany precedes the all-European figure, making this figure important. They’re expected to remain unchanged now.
4. PPI: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. European producer prices aren’t following consumer prices and remain contained. Last month’s 0.1% rise shows that the Euro-zone’s inflationary pressures aren’t strong. But now, a significant rise is predicted, after Germany’s PPI was high.
5. Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Consumers in the continent have shown less confidence lately – retail sales squeezed in the past two months with a serious drop of 0.6% last month. A small rise is predicted this time – 0.1%.
6. German Factory Orders: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. Germany’s industry is the locomotive of the Euro-zone. After a leap of 5.1% in orders two months ago, orders stalled last month. A fresh rise of 1.4% is predicted this time and will help stabilize the Euro.
7. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet has no choice but to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1%. He might comment on the  deteriorating situation of the countries at the flanks of the continent.  Any economic forecast will move the Euro at the press conference due 45 minutes after the release.
8. German Industrial Production: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. The second industrial release from Germany is weaker than the factory orders. Industrial production didn’t move last month, and also two months ago it hardly rose. A rise is necessary this time, and expectations are rather high – 1.5%.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After hovering above 1.3267, the pair broke downwards and pierced through last week’s low of 1.32 to bottom out only at 1.3114, very close to the all-important 1.3080 line. It then recovered and managed to close above 1.3267.

Note that some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. Looking up, 1.3420 returns to its role as a resistance line, being the immediate barrier for the Euro’s strength. Above, 1.3530 is the next line of resistance, already more important.

The high level in recent weeks, 1.37 provides further resistance, and the ultimate line is 1.3850 – EUR/USD collapsed when reaching this line.

Looking down, the role of 1.3267 is becoming smaller, yet still notable. Strong support is found at 1.3080. The pair approached this line last week. This was the place where the Euro began the rally of 2009. Even lower, 1.2886 is the next line of support. A Greek default will send EUR/USD to this line.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

The debt issues continue to be a big burden on the Euro, and to provide fuel for the dollar bulls. It will be interesting to see how Trichet relates to the crisis and if the slightly improving indicators will put the brakes on the fall of the Euro.

This pair receives many interesting reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:

• Casey Stubbs provides an up-to-date technical analysis for the pair using daily and hourly charts.
• James Chen sees the pair descend to key support within downtrend.
• Andrei sees the pair going down, and marks the important lines.
• DailyFX say that the Euro may find temporary reprieve with a Greek bailout approval.
• TheGeekKnows reviews the week and looks forward.

Further reading on Forex Crunch:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the British Pound, look into the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.
• For the kiwi, here’s the  NZD/USD forecast.

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