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AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Outlook – May 17-21

Meeting minutes from the sixth rate hike and many inflation figures await Aussie traders. Here’s an outlook for the Aussie events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD, now in lower ground.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Another volatile week saw contradicting employment figures. While more jobs than expected were gained, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.4%. Let’s see what’s awaiting us this time:

  1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. The sixth Australian rate hike since the crisis took some people by surprise, like the fifth hike. Explanations to this move will probably be seen when the minutes are released. More importantly, hints towards the timing of a seventh hike are likely to vbe revealed.
  2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Westpac Banking Corporation surveys 1200 consumers about their economic mood. Last month’s figure disappointed as it dropped by 1%. Volatility will probably continue with a rise this time.
  3. Malcolm Edey talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 00:#0 GMT. The RBA Assistant Governor has influence on monetary policy. Given the past two rate hikes that were surprising, any hint towards the next move will rock the Aussie.
  4. Wage Price Index: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This quarterly release combines employment and inflation in one figure. The wage price index rose by 0.6% in the last quarter, slower than previous quarters. A stronger rise of 0.9% is expected this time.
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. The Melbourne Institute has shown a jump in inflation expectations – 4.1%, after many months around 3%. This goes hand in hand with the government’s numbers that are published only once per quarter. Expectations are expected to remain above 4%, indicating yet another rate hike. Also note that the same institute publishes its Leading Index figure at the same time.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie had a good start to the week, jumping above 0.90 and aiming for the 0.9135 resistance line. Things changed afterwards, and AUD/USD traded between 0.88 and 0.90 during the rest of the week, finally finishing at 0.8850.

The pair is currently bound between these two lines: 0.88 and 0.90. This is a lower range than in last week’s outlook. Most lines haven’t changed though.

Looking up, the next line of resistance is 0.9135, a place where the pair paused when it was trading higher. Above, 0.9220 is another resistance line that served as a support line recently.

Even higher, 0.9327 was a resistance line many times in the past, and despite being broken several times, it still has its role.

Looking down below 0.88, significant support is found at 0.8567, the area where the Aussie began trading higher, and also the 2010 low. Even lower, 0.8230 served as a resistance line last summer, and now provides support.

I remain bullish on AUD/USD.

Despite being carried away by the dollar strength, the Aussie’s fundamentals, as seen in the job gains should help it outperform European currencies and the greenback as well.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.