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Forex Daily Outlook – October 4 2010

We start the week with some interesting updates and news. In the US, Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks in Providence, Halifax HPI in Britain, NZIER Business Confidence in New Zealand and much more. Lets see what awaits us today.

In the US, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers a speech titled “Fiscal Sustainability and Fiscal Rules” at the Rhode Island Convention Center, in Providence , Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues.

Later in the US, Pending Home Sales, the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction decreased by 2.6%. It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction.

Finally in the US, Factory Orders, It’s a leading indicator of production that measurers the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers and has decreased by 4%.

For more on USD/CAD, read the  Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Sentix Investor Confidence, Survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone, increased by 1 point to 8.6 and indicates optimism

Also in  Europe, Producer Price Index (PPI); the price of finished goods and services sold by producers; has stabilized on 0.2% and have a muted impact because Germany and France, which account for about half of the Eurozone’s economy, release their PPI data earlier.

For more on the Euro, read the  EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’  latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Halifax House Price Index (HPI), the price of homes financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), has increased by 0.4%, a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity

More in Britain, Bank of England (BOE), Deputy Governor Paul Tucker speaks at the Mansion House Conference on Values and the City, in London; Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

Finally in Britain, Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI); Survey of about 170 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; decried by 0.6 points but still indicates industry expansion.

Read more about the Pound in the  GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Australian Industry Group (AIG) Services Index, Survey of about 200 service-based companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories indicates contraction with 47.5 points.

Finally in Australia, Melbourne Institute (MI), Inflation Gauge, measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. This data provides a monthly look at consumer inflation and is designed to mimic the quarterly government-released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

For more on the Aussie, read the  AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, NZIER Business Confidence, Survey of about 3,500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook, indicates optimism with 18 Points. Businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment

More in New Zealand, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ); Commodity Prices the global price of exported commodities stabilized on -1.4%. The average price of the nation’s main commodity exports are sampled on the global market and then compared to the previous sampling.

In Japan, Average Cash Earnings the total value of employment income collected by workers decreased by 0.6%, Income is correlated with spending – the more disposable income consumers have, the more likely they are to increase spending.

Finally in Japan, Monetary Base, the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ has increased by 0.4%. It’s positively correlated with interest rates – early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer