EUR/USD dipped below the uptrend channel as the G-20 meetings begin. Will we see a collapse, or is it a false break? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.
EUR/USD Technicals
- Asian session: Made yet another attempt to conquer 1.3610 – it didn’t stay above.
- Current range – 1.35 – 1.3570
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
- Above: 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.37, 1.3760, 1.3830, 1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
- 1.3440 is important support below – just proved itself in recent days.
- The failure to conquer the critical 1.3760 is a bearish sign
- Uptrend channel is challenged – EUR/USD is now just below uptrend support, but it manages to hold above it, at least for now.
Euro/Dollar in channel – click on the graph to enlarge.
* Post updated 11:45 GMT.
EUR/USD Fundamentals –
- 7:00 German PPI. Exp. +0.6%, Actual +1.2%. Euro-positive.
- 13:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks.
- 14:45 US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks.
* All times are GMT.
For more events later in the week, see the EUR/USD forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment
- China raises the Reserve Ratio Rate. This is not the first time, but the 0.50% scale is rather large. This hurts the Euro
- G-20 meetings begin today. Statements released by the leaders will have an impact on currencies.
- Unrest in the Middle East helps the US dollar. The focus is on Bahrain and Libya at the moment – both big exporters of oil. Note that the oil pipelines in Egypt aren’t in full capacity as well.
- The departure of Axel Weber from the ECB continues to weigh on the Euro – now there’s a new candidate – Jens Weidmann, Chancellor Merkel’s aide.
- Irish debt is a big burden: There are growing talks of a default in Ireland. Opposition party in Ireland, Fine Gael, wants a haircut for senior bondholders. Now they have a precedent of a default in Denmark to rely on. The current government left this issue for the next government.
- A bailout for Portugal is getting closer as bond yields are rising and becoming unsustainable again.
Currensee Community: 63% are long , 37% are short. These are 1525 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.
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