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Greenback With Its Back Against the Wall

The US dollar index is at the lowest level since the height of the financial crisis in November 2008. The chart below shows that the next support line isn’t too close. While USD/CHF  is at all time lows and precious metals are at record highs, the Euro is hesitating in joining this extreme dollar weakness. Update.

At 76.70, the dollar index is at the lowest levels since November 2008. It dipped below the previous lows set in the past few days. The next level of support is at 76.14, followed by 75.63. Note that there’s still room until the all time low of 70.92 is reached. This line was met in the summer of 2008, when oil prices touched $150 and just before the financial crisis exploded.

The situation in Libya isn’t too close to being resolved – the civil war goes on with a counter attack by Gaddafi forces. This attack, on critical oil producing cities. Will NATO aid the rebels? Not so soon. This naturally sends oil prices higher and the dollar lower. WTI is feeling too comfortable above $100.

US Dollar Index Going UnderBernanke isn’t helping the dollar either – in his appearances in Washington, Bernanke is rather soft, unexcited from rising prices and doesn’t signal any move towards fighting inflation. This is naturally dollar-negative.

Precious  metals become attractive at times of trouble  – Gold is above $1437 per ounce (as predicted in this gold Elliott Wave analysis) and silver is at $34.84.  USD/CHF is at all time lows, flirting just above 0.92. The Swissy enjoys fear and is sought in times of trouble. The Canadian dollar enjoys the price of oil but USD/CAD has a tough barrier at 0.9700 – a break below this line proved to be only a false break.

EUR/USD Reluctant to Follow

Euro/Dollar now trades at 1.3873, above the important 1.3860 line. It’s important to note that this break isn’t confirmed yet. While Europe is also experiencing rising inflation that may lead to a rate hike, it also has serious debt problems. Portuguese yields refuse to fall, and are around 7.50%.

The decisive elections in Ireland also mean trouble for the European Union. Can the bailout program really work? On March 11th, at the EU Summit, we’ll know if Ireland and Germany can agree on some kind of improved terms for the bailout program.

Levels above are 1.3950 and 1.4030. Below we find 1.3760 and 1.37. For more on the Euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.