Home USD/CAD Outlook – May 2-6
Canadian Dollar Forecast, Minors

USD/CAD Outlook – May 2-6

Building Permits, Ivey PMI and of course the employment data are the major market-movers this week. Here is an outlook on the main events that will rock the loonie, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canada’s economy squeezed down in February, temporarily weakening the Canadian dollar. This goes hand in hand with the squeeze slowdown in the US.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Canadian dollar chart May 2-6

  1. RMPI: Monday, 13:30. The Industrial Product Price Index gained 0.7% in February, while the Raw Materials Price Index increased 1.8%. Oil and coal products  led the increase. On a yearly base the index rose 3.4% compared with the same month last year. IPPI is predicted to rise further by 0.9% and RMPI increase by 1.9%.
  2. Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. Permits surged 9.9% in February much higher than the 1.6% gain anticipated thanks to a sharp rise in nonresidential permits. Nevertheless residential permits plunged 18.3% indicating the housing industry has not recovered. A smaller gain of 2.7% is predicted.
  3. Ivey PMI: Thursday, 15:00. Canada’s Ivey purchasing manager’s index edged up in March to 73.2 from 69.3 in the previous month. This unexpected climb is positive  for the Canadian economy signaling expansion in the market. A drop to 69.2 is forecasted.
  4. Employment Data: Friday, 12:00. Canada’s unemployment rate dropped slightly to 7.7% with 90,600 new full time positions. However Employment Change was still negative dropping 1,500 jobs despite due to a slide of 92,100 in part time positions.15,200 new positions are forecasted with the sa,e unemployment rate of 7.7%.
  5. Mark Carney speaks: Friday, 14:00. Mark Carney BOC Governor will speak in Helsinki. His words may provide info on future monetary policy.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

The past week saw very choppy trading. USD/CAD eventually closed lower, getting close to the 0.9410 line (discussed last week).

Looking up, 0.9510 now switches to resistance, although it’s important to note that this is merely minor resistance, as the pair shattered this line now.  0.96 is the distinctive and immediate line of resistance. This was seen a few weeks ago.

Moving higher, we encounter 0.9667, which worked well in the past two weeks and as a trough at the beginning of the year.  It’s followed by 0.98 – another support line from 2007, that proved to be a strong line in recent weeks.

Even higher, we find 0.9930.  This is the 2010 low and it now works as strong resistance if the pair gets close to these levels.  The next minor resistance line is very close – 0.9977, another low from 2010.  We now reach the distinctive line of USD/CAD parity. This is also resistance, although after it was crossed many times, its significance is reduced.

Looking down, the lines discussed here are old lines that have awakened after this fall. Once again, support is found at 0.9510, which was only a minor line in 2007, but proved to be quite strong now.  It’s followed by 0.9415, which also played a role back then.

Even lower, 0.92 is also of significance, followed by the all time low of 0.9056. We might reach that area if the greenback continues its course.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

Despite the fall in GDP, the rising prices of oil and the blow that Bernanke gave the dollar, will continue to push the pair lower. The employment figures on Friday in both countries will hold the key.

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Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer