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AUD/USD Forecast, Minors

AUD/USD Outlook – July 11-15

It seems that nothing can push the Australian dollar down. The upcoming week consists of a few interesting events that will rock the Aussie. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

A Chinese rate hike, the debt crisis in Europe, the dovish rate decision in Australia and the global slowdown couldn’t stop the Aussie. The Australian economy is still strong, as reflected in the stronger-than-expected jobs data.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:AUD to USD Chart July 11 15 2011

  1. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Monday, 00:30. Over a thousand consumers are monitored by this large Australian bank. This indicator has been quite volatile, with ups and down. In the past two months, it dropped, by 1.3% and 2.6%. A third drop in a row will be a serious trend, and will weigh on the Aussie.
  2. Home Loans: Monday, 1:30. After building approvals disappointed last week, this housing sector figure isn’t expected to be much better. It posted a strong rise of 4.8% last month, and another positive month looks unlikely.
  3. NAB Business Confidence: Monday, 3:30. This wide survey of business has been edging down of late. It slid down to 6 points, and will likely correct and tick up this time.
  4. Chinese  Industrial Production: Monday, 2:00. Australia’s main trade partner will release a bulk of economic information. CPI is expected to remain above 5%, and industrial production is what’s more important for Australia, that exports commodities to the economic giant. The strong pace of growth, above 13% (annualized) cannot hold for long. A drop is expected now.
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. The Melbourne Institute has shown lower inflation expectations, but they are still quite high – 3.3%. A drop under 3% will lower the chances of a rate hike anytime soon.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar had a choppy start to the week, with a struggle around the 1.0670 support line (mentioned last week). It managed to recover and eventually challenge 1.0775. All in all, it weathered the storms.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

The  float era high of 1.1012 is already a definite line of resistance, just above the round number of 1.10. Below, 1.0920 serves as minor resistance.

1.088 had a chance to work in both directions – capping the pair on the way up, and later temporary halting the pair on the way down. It was a swing high in May. A move on this line can happen if the next line is decisively broken.

1.0775 was a key resistance level in the past weeks, also now. This is the top border of a wider range..  1.0670 is strong support once again. It provides a cushion for the current higher range.

1.0580 is the next line of support, if 1.0670 is broken. It capped the pair for long days. Its role is minor now after being pierced through on the way down as well as on the way up.  The round number of 1.05 managed to cushion the recent fall, and returns to be of importance..

1.0440 proved to be a very strong support line after being a swing low a month and also recently, although it is slightly weaker now.  1.0390 was a distinctive line that worked in both directions at the beginning of April and is weak support now.

A stepping stone for the Aussie on its way up was 1.0315.  It is likely to be a stepping stone on the way down if the pair collapses. An important cushion is 1.0254, the 2010 high that is still below, but getting closer.

I turn from neutral to bullish on AUD/USD.

The gain in jobs, alongside the stable commodity prices, make room for some gains for the Aussie. This comes despite the global slowdown, felt also in Australia’s main trade partner. Positive signs from China can boost the pair.

Further reading:


Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.