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Majors, US Dollar Forecast

Forex Weekly Outlook December 5-9 2011 forecast

The debt crisis in Europe will continue taking the center stage, with the climax being the EU Summit on Friday. Rate decisions in Europe, the UK, Australia and New Zealand are other highlights in this busy week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers lined up.

Non-Farm Payrolls came out as expected, but the surprising drop in the unemployment rate provided a lot of hope. Also CB Consumer Confidence exceeded expectations with more than 15 point rise reaching 56.0 following months of decline. Can the US economy lead the world once again? There are doubts.  Let’s Start

  1. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. The  U.S. non-manufacturing PMI remained above the 50 point line for the 23rd consecutive month, reaching 52.9 in October after a 53.0 reading in September. Nevertheless this positive figure still reflects slower economic activity. A rise to 53.6 is expected now.
  2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30.Australia’s central bank reduced its cash  rate  by 25 basis points to 4.5% in November in light of the slowdown in the European market and a decline in commodity prices. Cash rate is expected to go down by 0.25 percentage points.
  3. Canadian rate decision: Tuesday, 14:00. The Bank of  Canada  maintained its overnight rate at 1.0% amid the global decline in economic activity. The BOC predicts a recession in Europe and a weakening in the US market which may cause downside risks. In light of the global slowdown, the BOC expectsCanada’s economic growth will decline until mid 2012. No change is forecasted.
  4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 0:30. Australian gross domestic product expanded by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in the second quarter after 0.9% expansion in the first quarter. The reading was above the 1.0% growth rate expected indicating that Australia is less affected by the slowdown in Europe. The same growth rate of 1.2% is expected.
  5. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. Governor Alan Bollard maintained NZ cash rate at 2.5% in light of global financial uncertainty despite the relatively healthy state of NZ economy calling for rate hikes. The European debt crisis could cause recession in global markets which may affect NZ growth prospects. The same rate is predicted.
  6. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0.30. Australian labor market added 10,100 workers in October after gaining 22,500 jobs in the previous month. The reading was in line with expectations. Meanwhile unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% from5.3 in the previous month due to higher employment in energy companies. The Australian Job market I expected to add 10,600 jobs while unemployment rate is forecasted to remain 5.2%.
  7. UK Rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England maintained its base rates at 0.50% in November and voted to continue the asset purchases program totaling £275 billion. No change is forecasted now.
  8. Euro-Zone Rate decision: Thursday, 12:30. The European Central Bank lowered its interest rate by 0.25 percent points from 1.5% to 1.25% in line with predictions.  Mario Draghi, President of ECB claimed he doesn’t expect that the rate reduction will increase inflation pressures. The ECB expects growth to remain low in the second half of 2011which is likely to affect 2012 growth rate.  Another cut of 25 basis points is likely now, given the economic deterioration.
  9.  US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits increased again last week up by 6,000 to 402,000. Analysts expected a decline to 390,000. The figures are not stable but an improvement in the job market can be detected. A drop to 398,000 is expected now.
  10. EU Summit: Some call it “the last effort to save the euro-zone”. The European leaders, together with the ECB and the IMF, will try to find a solution to the debt crisis. There are various options for a long term solution, and a warming up towards using the ECB to provide a short term solution.
  11. US Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. trade deficit dropped to $43.1 billion in September, the lowest figure this year amid stronger exports of American-made automobiles, airplanes and heavy machinery. This could boost growth in the July-September quarter. August deficit stood at $44.9 billion. Deficit is expected another reduction to $43.0 billion.
  12. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. UoM Consumer Sentiment survey continued to rise in November reaching a 5 month high of 64.2 from 60.9 in the previous month. Americans are more hopeful about the economic outlook a hopeful sign that may boost the American economy by increasing consumer spending. September reading reached 60.9. Another rise to 65.8 is forecasted.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

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Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer