EUR/USD has posted modest gains in Tuesday trading. The pair is trading in the mid-1.33 range in the European session. In economic news, German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment both climbed sharply, posting multi-year highs. However, Eurozone Account missed its estimate. In the US, the weak releases continue, as Empire State Manufacturing Index was well below the estimate. The markets are hoping for better news from today’s key event, Core CPI.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD edged higher late in the session, touching a high of 1.3356 and consolidating at 1.3343. The pair has moved up slightly in the European session.
Current range: 1.3325 to 1.3450.
- Below: 1.3325, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050 and 1.30.
- Above: 1.3450, 1.3520, 1.3590 and 1.37.
- 1.3325 is providing weak support. 1.3240 is stronger.
- 1.3450 is a strong resistance line.
- 8:00 Eurozone Current Account. Exp. 18.3B, Actual 16.9B.
- 9:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 45.3, Actual 49.6 points.
- 9:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 47.2, Actual 58.6 points.
- 9:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Exp. 15.3B, Actual 11.1B.
- 12:15 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Speaks.
- 12:30 US Core CPI. Exp. 0.1%.
- 12:30 US CPI. Exp. 0.2%.
- 13:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Exp. -45.3B.
- 14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Exp. 59 points.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
- ZEW Economic Sentiment Sparkles: Eurozone and German ZEW Economic Sentiment releases were excellent in August. The German indicator jumped from 42.0 to 49.6 points, surpassing the estimate of 45.3 points. This was the indicator’s best level since April 2010. However, Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment stole the show, rising from 44.0 to 58.6 points, a remarkable reading. This crushed the estimate of 47.2 points, and was the highest level recorded since September 2009. These strong releases reflect the view of financial market experts that the German and Eurozone economies are picking up steam.
- What’s wrong with the US?: US releases have run into trouble, and UoM Consumer Sentiment looked awful on Friday. The key indicator dropped from 80.0 points in July to 76.8 in August, its lowest level since March. This weak figure comes on the heels of weak US retail sales releases on Thursday. The new week didn’t start out much better, as Empire State Manufacturing Index, an important release, posted another sharp drop in August. The indicator fell from 8.2 points to 6.3 points. This was way off the estimate of 9.2 points. The markets are hoping that the US numbers will get back on track on Tuesday, with the release of Core CPI, a key event.
- Summers withdraws from Fed race: US Federal Reserve Bernard Bernanke steps down at the end of January, and the race to replace Bernanke has taken a dramatic twist. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers was considered the leading contender for the prestigious position. Surprisingly, Summers has withdrawn his nomination, leaving Vice Chairman Janet Yellen as the favored candidate. Yellen is considered dovish and may be hesitant when it comes to QE tapering. The dollar responded to the news of Summers’ withdrawal by losing ground against the major currencies.
- Markets Eye FOMC Statement: This week’s hot event will be the FOMC Statement, scheduled for release on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve winds up a two-day policy meeting. The markets have been speculating about QE tapering for months, and we could see the Fed take action in the upcoming statement. However, there is a stronger likelihood that QE tapering will not begin till later in the year, as US economic releases, particularly employment data, could be stronger. Traders should be prepared for some volatility from EUR/USD once the FOMC Statement is released.