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EUR/USD September 20 – Steady After Recent Gains

EUR/USD  is  steady  in Friday trading, taking a  breather  after Wednesday’s huge gains, as the Federal Reserve did not take any action regarding QE. The pair is trading in the mid-1.35 range in the European session. In economic news, the US posted strong data on Thursday, highlighted by a solid Unemployment Claims release. However, this was not enough to bolster the beleaguered US dollar. Friday has just one economic release – Eurozone Consumer Confidence. We could see some movement from EUR/USD as several Federal Reserve policymakers speak, including FOMC Member James Bullard, will address an event in New York City.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • In the Asian session, EUR/USD showed little movement, touching a high of 1.3542 late in the session and consolidating at 1.3536. The pair is unchanged  in the European session.

Current range: 1.3520 to 1.3590.

Further levels in both directions:   EUR USD Daily Outlook_Sep 20th

  • Below: 1.3520, 1.3450, 1.3415, 1.3325 and 1.3240.
  • Above: 1.3590, 1.37, 1.3789, 1.3897 and 1.40.
  • 1.3520 is  providing weak  support.  
  • 1.3590 is the first resistance line on the road to the YTD high of 1.3710.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 11:30 German Buba  President Jens Weidmann Speaks.
  • 14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence. Exp. -14 points.
  • 16:30 US FOMC Member Esther George Speaks.
  • 16:40 US FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.
  • 16:55 US FOMC Member James Bullard  Speaks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.


EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Dollar Tumbles After NO Taper: Most analysts, including here, were surprised by the decision not to taper after many FOMC members said they were coming with an “open mind”. This sent the dollar down across the board. There were quite a few other reasons for tapering, but the Fed was worried about the tightening financial conditions (somewhat self-created with the taper talk in May-June) and the unconvincing growth in the economy. Bernanke reiterated that the unemployment rate overstates the real picture. However, he didn’t rule out the end of QE by mid-2014 or a taper in October, which is the  next date that the Fed reconvenes for a policy meeting. Here is the full live blog of Bernanke.
  • US Data Shines: Overshadowed by the FOMC Statement were excellent US releases on Thursday. Unemployment Claims came in at 309 thousand, well below the estimate of 331 thousand. Existing Home Sales rose to 5.48 million, crushing the estimate of 5.27 million, and posting its best level in over three years. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rocketed from 9.3 to 22.3 points, its best showing since May 2011. Perhaps if we’d seen this kinds of numbers a week or two ago, the Fed might have introduced QE tapering. In any event, the strong numbers failed to bolster the struggling US dollar.
  • Summers withdraws from Fed race:  The dollar was already hit earlier in the week by another Fed related event.  Surprisingly, Larry Summers, which was considered hawkish, has withdrawn his nomination, leaving Vice Chairman Janet Yellen as the favored candidate.  Yellen is considered dovish and may be hesitant when it comes to QE tapering. The dollar responded to the news of Summers’ withdrawal  by losing ground against the major currencies.
  • Germans vote on weekend: On  Sunday, September 22nd, German voters will vote in federal elections. Incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel’s center right CDU party is expected to maintain power, as Merkel seeks a straight third term. However the CDU may have to share  power with the center-left SPD. Such a “grand coalition” might be more pro-European, leading to a third Greek bailout, but could also be unstable.
  • Encouraging German, European  confidence numbers:  The last  release out of  Germany was upbeat: German ZEW  Economic  Sentiment releases was excellent in August jumping from 42.0 to 49.6 points, the best level  since April 2010.  These strong releases reflect the view of financial market experts that the German and Eurozone economies are picking up steam, after some other worrying figures.

Here is a post FOMC technical outlook for EUR/USD.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.