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EUR/USD Nov. 19 – Little Movement After Mixed Economic

EUR/USD is showing little movement in Tuesday trading, as the pair  trades close to the 1.35  line in the European session. In economic news, German ZEW Economic Sentiment matched the forecast, but Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell short of the estimate. In the US, it’s another quiet day, with just one data release. Today’s highlights include speeches by US Treasury Jack Lew and two FOMC members.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • In the Asian session, EUR/USD  was uneventful, as the pair traded slightly above the 1.35 line and consolidated at 1.3520. The pair is steady in the European session.
  • Current range: 1.3500 to 1.3570.

Further levels in both directions:   EUR USD Daily Forecast_Nov. 19th

  • Below: 1.3500, 1.3440, 1.3400, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2940, 1.2890 and 1.2840.
  • Above: 1.3570, 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800 and 1.3870
  • On the downside, 1.3500  continues to provide  weak support. 1.3440 is next.
  • 1.3570 is the next line of resistance. 1.3650 follows.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 54.6, Actual 54.6 points.
  • 10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 63.1, Actual 60.2 points.
  • 13:30 US Employment Cost. Exp. 0.5%.
  • 13:45 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Speaks.
  • 15:00 FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks.
  • 19:15 FOMC Member  Charles Evans  Speaks.
  • 20:00 President Barack Obama Speaks.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Mixed confidence indicators out of Eurozone: Eurozone numbers continue to point in all directions, making it difficult to predict what direction the euro might take. German ZEW Economic Sentiment continues to improve and came in at 54.6 points in October, matching the estimate. This was the indicators best showing in four years.  The Eurozone  ZEW Economic Sentiment also improved last month,  crossing above the 60-level as it reached 60.2 points.  However, this was well short of the estimate of 63.1 points. The euro shrugged off these numbers and continues to trade close to the 1.35 line.
  • Current account falters: Eurozone Current Account looked awful in October, as the surplus dropped to 13.7 billion euros, compared to 17.4 billion the month before. This was way off the estimate of 18.3 billion. Current Account is closely linked to currency demand, with a smaller surplus indicative of decreased purchases of euros by foreigners for Eurozone goods and services. So, the weak reading in October could have a negative impact on the euro.
  • Yellen supports QE: Incoming Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen testified before the powerful Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Yellen is a strong supporter of QE, and told the committee that the present level of asset purchases should continue until growth improves and unemployment falls. She said that the labor market and economy are performing “far short of their potential”, but added that she expects inflation to remain below the Fed’s target of 2%. Yellen, who will become the first woman to head the Federal Reserve, takes over from Bernard Bernanke in January.
  • EUR/USD  marked by  low volatility: Speculation continues on  a daily basis as to when the Fed will scale back its QE program,  yet we continue to see low volatility in the markets. What gives? This  could mean  one of two  things – either the markets are not expecting a  taper in  the near future, or they are prepared for a reduction should the Fed  press  the taper trigger. EUR/USD  is  showing little movement, and last week  the one-month implied volatility on the pair posted its lowest reading since 2007.  Of course, things can change quickly in the currency markets, but for now, the EUR/USD waters are quite calm.









Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.