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EUR/USD Jan. 28 – Slight Losses Ahead of Key US Numbers

EUR/USD  has edged lower  on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.36 range in the European session. In economic news, German Import Prices looked weak, coming in at a flat 0.0% in December. As well, EU financial ministers will get together for their monthly meeting. In the US, there are two key events – Core Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD  was steady in the  Asian session, hovering  close to the 1.3670 line. The pair has lost ground early in the European session.

Current range: 1.3580 to 1.3650.

Further levels in both directions:   EUR USD Daily Forecast Jan. 28th


  • Below: 1.3580, 1.3515, 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175 and 1.31.
  • Above: 1.3650, 1.37, 1.3800, 1.3832 and  1.3940.
  • 1.3580 is the next support level.  1.3515 is stronger.
  • 1.3650 is weak resistance. The round number of 1.37 follows.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 German Import Prices. exp. 0.3%, actual 0.0%.
  • All Day – ECOFIN Meetings.
  • 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. exp. 0.7%.
  • 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. exp. 1.9%.
  • 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. exp. 13.7%.
  • 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. exp. 78.3 points.
  • 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. exp. 13 points.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • German Business Confidence Improves: The week started on the right foot for Eurozone data, as German Ifo  Business Climate, a key event, continues to improve. The indicator topped the 110 level, posting a reading of 110.6 points, up from 109.5 last month. This edged above the estimate of 110.2 points. Germany is the Eurozone’s largest economy, and the region will need the German locomotive to lead the way to an economic recovery.
  • US Housing Numbers Slide: The US housing sector  is  showing some weakness. New Home Sales  dropped sharply in December  to 414 thousand,  down from  464  thousand a month earlier. This was nowhere near the estimate of 457 thousand.  This follows a disappointing Existing Home Sales release last week. The key indicator dropped to 4.87 million, down from 4.90 million  a month earlier and shy of the estimate of the 4.94 million. This was the indicator’s fourth straight drop. The markets will be hoping for better news from Pending Home Sales on Thursday. A third straight housing reading below the estimate could weigh on the dollar.
  • Worries about China: Jitters in Chinese money markets, as well as comments about a “severe economic situation” in the world’s No. 2 economy are worrying markets. While the impact is currently limited to commodity currencies, lower Chinese demand for German products could change the European picture one day.
  • IMF warns about deflation in Eurozone: Eurozone inflation indicators continue to point to weak inflation, and the situation as deteriorated to such an extent that the IMF has voiced its concern about the danger of deflation in Europe. This was seen in a report published by the organization as well as in a speech by  IMF Managing Director  Christine Lagarde in Davos.  While  the ECB seems concerned  with low inflation  and not outright deflation, any further deterioration could push the ECB to set a negative deposit rate as soon as March 2014. This is a primary source of euro vulnerability.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.