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USDJPY Head and Shoulders pattern suggests bearish move

US stocks initially traded higher after the better than expected NFP but then we have seen a pullback into Friday’s close on tensions in Ukraine. US yields also fell sharply following the NFP which is also causing downside pressure on stocks.

Below we have a chart of 10 year US yields where we can see that price close out side of the 3-month range that could lead to lower prices in May.

US yields daily
us yields May 2014 technical Elliott Wave analysis for currency traders

If yields continue to the downside then stocks and especially USDJPY will be moving south as well. In fact, we were looking for a bearish reversal from 103.00 on USDJPY and we got it on Friday. In fact, a reversal is looking strong so ideally it’s start of a larger decline.

Another very interesting view is a comparison of the USDJPY waves to the reaction following the NFP back from March and April when the pair fell sharply, so we would not be surprised to see something similar now at the start of May. A bearish head and shoulders pattern is suggesting the same. We are tracking this pair very closely for EPO.


usdjpy may 05 looking bearish dollar yen Elliott Wave analysis

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Grega Horvat Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of Ew-Forecast, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published on FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. He recently won the award on FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At Ew-forecast he helps clients and educates them about the Elliott wave principle and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty, however, is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators. EW-Forecast To be involved in the market effectively, you need the right guidance and resources, and our team can help you to achieve that. Our team is providing advanced informations about Elliott Wave theory in real time. The Elliott Wave Principle gives you a method for identifying the behavior of the markets and at what points the market is most likely to turn. We help new traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our views as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power!