Home EUR/USD: Trading the US NFP Sep 2014

EUR/USD: Trading the US NFP Sep 2014

US Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Update:  Non-Farm Payrolls disappoint with only 142K – USD falling

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity.  The release of US Non-Farm  Employment Change  is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can affect the direction of EUR/USD.

Unemployment Claims has posted two straight readings of 298 thousand, both of which were within expectations. The markets are expecting an identical reading for the upcoming release.

Sentiment and Levels

The Eurozone economy continues to sputter, and the ECB has again lowered interest rates in attempt to revive growth and inflation. Will Mario Draghi have  success with this move  or is he firing more blanks? In the US, GDP was a reminder of strong growth and we will probably now get a reminder of nice job growth via the NFP. So, the overall sentiment  remains  bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.3150, 1.31, 1.30, 1.2910, 1.2806 and 1.2686.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 294K to 304K. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within  range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 305K to 312K: An unexpected higher reading could send the pair  above one  resistance line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 312K: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome could  prop up the pair, and a second  resistance line could  break as a result.
  4. Below expectations:  286K to 293K: A  better reading  than forecast could result in EUR/USD dropping below one support level.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 286K. In this scenario, the pair could break through a second support level.

For more about the euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.