Good news from the US: GDP growth was revised from 4% to 4.2% in Q2. Jobless claims are under 300K at 298K.
The US dollar responds positively, but the moves don’t go too far.
The US was expected to revise down the growth rate from strong 4% originally reported to 3.9% now, but the strong durable goods orders raised “whisper” expectations. Jobless claims were expected to remain around the 298K reported last week before revisions.
Towards the releases, the yen and the franc were on the rise on the Russia-Ukraine war.
In the first release, the US surprised by reporting an annual growth rate of no less than 4%, but a significant portion was due to inventories. Jobless claims dropped lower during the summer, standing under 300K several times.
The data
- Annualized GDP growth has been revised to 4.2%, better than 3.9% expected.
- Capex has been revised to the upside.
- Core PCE remained unchanged at 2%.
- Personal consumption was revised from 2.4% to 2.5%.
- Business investment was revised up to 8.4%.
- The GDP price index has been revised up from 2% to 2.1%.
- Jobless claims stand at 298K, within expectations.
- The 4 week moving average falls just below 300K.
- Continuing claims are at 2.527K.
Forex levels
- EUR/USD traded around 1.3180 after as-expected German inflation data and suffering from the Ukrainian announcement that Russia has invaded. It fell to 1.3170 before stabilizing.
- GBP/USD traded around 1.6585. It slid below 1.6580.
- USD/JPY traded under 103.70, with the safe haven yen enjoying the news from Ukraine. The pair crossed 103.80.
- USD/CAD traded under 1.0850. Tomorrow we have Canadian jobs data and ignores the US figures.
- AUD/USD remained strong at around 0.9360 and now at 0.9355.
- NZD/USD traded around 0.8383 and is only a few pips down.
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