Home AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 8-12

AUD/USD  posted small gains over  the week, closing at 0.9366. This week’s key releases are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian releases met expectations for the most part, and the RBA didn’t adjust rates but took a swipe at the high value of the Australian dollar. In the US, Nonfarm Payrolls slumped to a 7-month low,  while services and manufacturing PMIs  were solid and  beat the estimates.

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AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSD Forecast Sep8-12

  1. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. This indicator is an important gauge of demand in the employment sector. Last month, the indicator disappointed with a gain of just 0.3%. The markets will be hoping for better news in the August release.
  2. Chinese Trade Balance: Monday, Tentative. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese data, as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner. The indicator jumped to $47.3 billion last month, crushing the estimate of $26.0 billion. Another strong surplus is expected in the upcoming release, with the estimate standing at $40.8 billion.
  3. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. Business Confidence jumped to 11 points last month, its highest level since last September. The indicator has now improved for four consecutive readings. Will the upward trend continue?
  4. Home Loans: Tuesday, 1:30. Home Loans is an important gauge of activity in the housing sector. Last month’s gain of 0.2% marked a 4-month high, so the indicator is struggling. The markets are expecting a sharp spike in August, with an estimate of 1.1%.
  5. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. The indicator looked sharp in July, posting a strong gain of 3.8% The markets will be hoping for another strong reading this week.  
  6. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. Analysts track Inflation Expectations in order to  predict actual inflation figures. The indicator continues to lose ground, dropping to 3.1% last month.  Will  the downward trend continue in the August reading?  
  7. Employment Change: Thursday, 1:30. Employment Change is one of the most important indicators and can have a significant impact on the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator took a tumble last month, posting a decline of 0.3 thousand, compared to the estimate of 13.5 thousand. The markets are  expecting a sharp turnaround in August, with the estimate standing at 15.2 thousand. The unemployment rate shot up to 6.4% last month, up from 6.0%. The forecast for the upcoming release is 6.3%.
  8. Chinese CPI: Thursday, 1:30. Chinese CPI is closely monitored and should be treated as a market-mover. The index came in at 2.3% last month for the second straight month, matching the forecast. Little change is expected, with an estimate of 2.2% for the August reading.
  9. Chinese Industrial Production: Saturday, 5:30. The indicator has been above the 9% level for the past two months, pointing to strength in the Chinese manufacturing sector. The estimate for the upcoming release stands at 8.8%.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  started the week  at 0.9329 and dropped to a low of 0.9263. The pair then reversed direction, climbing to a high of 0.9401. The pair closed the week at 0.9366, just  below resistance at 0.9375 (discussed last week).

Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]


Technical  lines from top to bottom:

0.9526 provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

Within the higher ranger, 0.9425 served as resistance in April occasionally capped the pair afterwards.

0.9330 was a cushion for the pair during July and is now weakening. 0.9270 supported the pair in August and also worked as resistance in the past.

0.9235 provided support twice during August. 0.9175  continues to  provide strong  support.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It has remained intact since early March.

0.8891 is the final support level for now. It has  provided strong support since February


I  am  bearish  on AUD/USD.

The US dollar has posted strong gains against its major rivals, and could continue its success at the expense of the Aussie. The US economy continues to move in the right direction, and speculation about the timing of an interest rate could give a further boost to the US dollar.

More Aussie:  AUD/USD – Make It Or Break It For The Aussie?

Listen to a preview of September’s big events in the latest episode of Market Movers:

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.