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USD/JPY Forecast Dec. 1-5

The  Japanese yen  remains at 7-year lows, as USD/JPY  climbed above 118 last week.  The pair closed at 118.55.  The upcoming week is a  quiet one, with  just  six  events. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese retail sales and inflation numbers met expectations. In the US, the large batch of data before Thanksgiving was not impressive: durable goods orders were mixed,  unemployment claims missed the estimate,  and housing numbers softened. Still, the US dollar continues to surge forward and posted strong gains at the expense of the yen.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

USDJPYForecast Dec.1-5

  1. Capital Spending: Sunday, 23:50.  This quarterly indicator looks at the total value of capital spending made by businesses. The indicator softened in Q2, with a gain of 3.0%, shy of the estimate of 3.8%. The Q3 reading is expected to dip to 2.1%.
  2. Final Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:35. The PMI has remained above the 50-point line in the second half of 2014, which indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. The indicator came in at 52.1 points in the previous reading, and little change is expected in the upcoming release.
  3. Monetary Base: Monday, 23:50. Monetary Base rose slightly in October, coming in at 36.9%. More of the same is expected in the November reading, with an estimate of 37.2%.
  4. Average Cash Earnings: Tuesday, 1:30. Analysts are interested in employment income, as increased income means translates into greater spending, which is critical for economic growth.
  5. 10-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. Yields on 10-year bonds have been decreasing and this trend continued last month, as yields slipped to 0.44%. Will the downward trend continue in the upcoming release?
  6. Leading Indicators: Tuesday, 5:00. This indicator is comprised of 11 leading indicators, but is considered a minor event, since most of the data has already been released.  The forecast for the upcoming reading stands at 104.2%.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen started the week at 117.78.  The pair touched  a low of 117.23, as support held at 116.82 (discussed  last week).  USD/JPY  then  posted strong gains and  climbed  to a  high  of 118.77. USD/JPY  closed the week at 118.55.

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 122.19 ,which has held firm since July 2007.   This is followed by 121.39.

119.88  is the last barrier  before the psychologically important 120 line.

117.94  was breached and has  switched to  a support role.

116.82 has strengthened as the USD/JPY trades at higher levels.

114.65  has  remained intact since December 2007, when the yen was in the midst of a strong yen rally which saw USD/JPY drop below the 96 line. 113.68 is next.

112.48 is the final support line for now. It has held firm since late October.

I am  bullish  on  USD/JPY

Despite weak numbers last week, the US remains on track for a rate hike in 2015. With the Japanese economy in recession, there is  further room for the yen to fall, as the psychologically important level of 120 looms closer.

In our latest podcast, we talk about holiday trading, run through the US situation, talk about the elections and the BOE and analyze China’s rate cut:

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.