In the past we have talked about how wages could rise faster in the US, especially when some workers get a raise early in the year, and how this could prompt an earlier rate hike.
FOMC member Stanley Fischer talked about a potential for higher wages, and another member with almost the exact last name, Richard Fisher, is now talking about the Fed being closer to raising rates that what is generally expected.
Yes, Fisher is a hawk, and he would also like to remove the “considerable time” guidance for interest rates soon. This is his preference. But what he said about raising rates refers to the wider Federal Reserve.
Markets see the Fed making its liftoff with rates somewhere in mid 2015. A press conference is held in the June meeting and also in September. These seem like reasonable times to act by markets.
Moving earlier could mean as early as March. Is it wishful thinking from Fisher or a clear sign that rates are rising earlier? What do you think?
We may get more hints from Yellen and co. in the upcoming meeting on December 17th, just before markets go on holiday.
In our latest podcast, we preview December’s big events, talk about the importance of jobless claims, the crash in oil prices and GOFO going negative:
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