USD/JPY climbed almost 200 points last week, as the pair closed just above the 119 line. There are five events this week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
Average Cash Earnings was the only Japanese major event last week. The indicator matched expectations with a 1.6% gain. In the US, PMIs were lukewarm, but there was good news from a superb NFP report, which pushed the pair higher.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:
- Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Current Account is closely linked to currency demand, so a higher surplus could give a boost to the yen. In November, the surplus dipped to JPY 0.91 trillion, but this easily beat the estimate of 0.69 trillion. The forecast for the December reading stands at 0.95 trillion.
- Consumer Confidence: Monday, 5:00. Consumer Confidence has been fairly steady, with the December reading of 38.8 points almost matching the forecast. A slight improvement is expected in January, with an estimate of 39.4 points.
- Tertiary Industry Activity: Monday, 23:50. This is the first manufacturing event of the week. The indicator improved to 0.2% last month, shy of the forecast of 0.3%. The estimate for the December reading stands at 0.1%.
- Core Machinery Orders: Wednesday, 23:50. Core Machinery Orders is an important gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector. The indicator bounced back in November with a reading of 1.3%, but this was well off the estimate of 4.8%. The markets are expecting the upswing to continue, with an estimate for December of 2.4%.
- Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Thursday, 6:00. This is the major event of the week. The indicator, an important gauge of consumer spending, had a weak December with a decline of 1.5%. This was well off the forecast of a 0.5% gain. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround, with an estimate of 1.6%.
* All times are GMT
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
Dollar/yen started the week at 117.19. The pair dropped to a low of 116.88, a support held firm at 116.82. (discussed last week). Dollar/yen posted sharp gains on Friday, hitting a high of 119.22 and closing the week at 119.09.
Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
124.16 marked the start of a yen rally in June 2007, which saw USD/JPY drop to the 96 level.
122.19 remains a strong resistance line which has held firm since July 2007. The next resistance line is 121.39.
119.88 has provided resistance since early January. It could face pressure if the yen continues to lose ground this week.
117.94 has switched to a support role as the pair posted strong gains.
116.82 held firm for a second straight week as the pair dropped close to this line. 116.02 is the next support level.
114.65 has remained intact since December 2007, when the yen posted a strong rally which saw USD/JPY drop below the 96 line.
113.17 is the final support level for now.
I am bullish on USD/JPY
US employment numbers have been positive, allaying concerns that the economy might not be strong enough to withstand a rate hike later in the year. In Japan, lack of inflation remains a serious problem and the BOJ may have to increase monetary stimulus, which would weigh on the weak yen.
In our latest podcast, we do an Aussie Analysis, Greek Grindings and Oil Optimism.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
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