USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 2-6

USD/CAD  showed movement in both directions but closed the week almost unchanged at  the 1.25 line.  There are 8 events this week, highlighted by GDP.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In the US, Janet Yellen’s testimony signaled that a Fed rate hike is not imminent and that wage growth and inflation will  need to improve before the Fed makes a move. Canadian inflation levels remain weak, but were within expectations.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Current Account: Monday, 13:30.  This quarterly indicator is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase Canadian goods and services with Canadian dollars. The current account deficit improved to C$ -8.4 billion in Q3, easily beating the estimate of C$ -10.3 billion. This positive trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of C$-7.4 billion for Q4.
2. GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. GDP is one of the most important economic indicators and should be treated as a market-mover. The indicator disappointed in November, with  a decline of 0.2%. This  marked the indicator’s weakest showing since December. The markets are expecting a  turnaround in the upcoming release, with an estimate of  0.1%.
3. RMPI: Tuesday, 13:30.  The Raw Materials Price Index continues to post sharp declines, and slipped to -7.6%. Still, this beat the forecast of -8.8%. Another strong decline is expected, with the estimate standing at -6.8%.
4. BOC Overnight Rate: Wednesday, 15:00.  The Bank of Canada shocked the markets in February, cutting rates from 1.0% to 0.75%. The markets are not expecting any change in the rates in the upcoming announcement.
5. Ivey PMI: Thursday, 15:00. Ivey PMI was unexpectedly weak in January, slipping to 45.4 points. This was the first time the indicator dropped below the 50-point level since June and was well off the estimate of 53.8 points. The forecast for January stands at 46.2 points.
6. Building Permits: Friday, 13:30. Building Permits shows strong volatility, often leading to readings that are not within expectations. In January, the indicator bounced back with an excellent gain of 7.7%, crushing the estimate of 7.7%.
7. Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. Trade Balance has been very steady,  with the  December reading coming in unchanged at $C-0.6 billion. This easily beat the estimate of C$-1.2 billion.  The markets  are expecting a strong turnaround, with a gain of C$ +0.3 billion
8. Labor Productivity: Friday, 13:30.  This indicator is  released on a  quarterly basis, magnifying the impact of each release. In Q3, the indicator posted a weak gain of 0.1%, within expectations. Little change is  expected in the upcoming release.

* All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2534 and climbed to a high of 1.2663. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 1.2388,  just shy of support  at 1.2387  (discussed last week).  USD/CAD closed the week at the 1.2502.

Live chart of USD/CAD:

Technical lines, from top to bottom

We  begin with resistance at 1.2924. This line  was last tested in March 2009.

1.2711 is the next line of resistance.

1.2541 continued to see action last week. This line  is currently a weak resistance line.

1.2387  is  an immediate support line. It held firm as the pair touched a low of 1.2388.

1.2230 is the next support level.

1.2114 is the final support line for now. This line switched to a support role late January  when the US dollar started a strong rally.

I am  bullish on USD/CAD

Canadian growth continues to lag behind its southern neighbor, and this could be underscored by weak GDP and inflation data this week. In the US, Fed chair Yellen tried to dampen expectations about a mid-rate hike in her Congressional testimony, but a strong NFP could boost the June rate expectations.