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EUR/USD: the big picture – guide to the next low levels

EUR/USD has been  trading in a downwards trajectory, to say the least. After forming a very temporary base at 1.0560, the pair extended ts falls and hit a new 12 year low at 1.0511. This  was a low point back in March 2003 as well as a high line December 2002. Yes,  2002 and 2003, not 2012 nor 2013.

What are the  levels to watch out for?

EUR/USD downfall

As the monthly chart below shows,  1.05 is still significant support, and the lines below, dating to the beginning of the millennium, don’t offer too much before the magical line of EUR/USD parity.

We already mentioned that after the break of 1.0760, there wasn’t too much on the way to 1.05. So far, this month of March has proved to be  devastating for the common currency (and quite good for the euro-zone, thank you very much).

EUR/USD fell from around 1.12 to 1.0511 as a low. And below, we have some support at 1.0360: this was the low point in January 2003.

Further down, 1.0170 worked as resistance back in November 2002. It is close to the swing high of 1.0208 seen in July of that year.

EUR/USD parity story

A first attempt on EUR/USD parity  was first seen in June 2002. The pair then continued up, way above this level and back down to a low of 0.9606 seen in September and October of that year. Only in December 2002, the pair shot higher, and this time it never looked back.

The euro  was launched as an official currency back in 1999. The launch value was 1.17 and the pair rose higher on the first day of trading.

However, by the end of that year, one euro was already meeting one dollar. In early 2000, the pair continued deteriorating and lost the  parity line, extending the moves from the second millennium to the third one.

The all time low of 0.8220 was seen in October 2000, where the pair bottomed out and began some trade ranging. When the currency was officially launched as physical bills and coins in January 2002, the value against the dollar was still still low, in the 80 cents region. But from there, it began rising.

Will it look down to parity now? We shall see.


Here is the monthly chart:

Euro dollar big picture monthly technical EURUSD chart hits lowest since early 2003 forex


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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.