USD/JPY briefly pushed above the 120 level, but showed little over the course of the week. The pair closed slightly below the 119 line. There are eight indicators this week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]In Japan, the key Tankan indices were a mix. Over in the US, the week started with strong numbers, led by an excellent consumer confidence report and strong unemployment claims. However, the week ended with a very disappointing jobs report, raising speculation that the Fed may have to delay a rate hike.
USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:
- Leading Indicators: Monday, 6:00. This indicator is a minor event, as most of the data has already been released. The indicator has been steady, with the past two readings coming in close to 105%. More of the same is expected in the February release.
- Current Account: Wednesday, 00:50. Current Account is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must pay for Japanese goods and services with Japanese yen.
- Monetary Policy Statement: Wednesday, Tentative. The BOJ continues to pursue its aggressive accommodative monetary policy and this is expected to continue until inflation levels rise. A press conference will follow after the release of the policy statement.
- Economy Watchers Sentiment: Wednesday, 6:00. The indicator improved to 50.1 points in February, pointing to slight optimism among the surveyed workers who were asked for their views on economic conditions. The upward swing is expected to continue, with the March estimate standing at 50.9 points.
- 30-year Bond Auction: Thursday, 4:45. The yield at the March auction for 30-year bonds improved to 1.51%, up from 1.46% in the February yield. Will the upward move continue in the April release?
- BOJ Monthly Report: Thursday, 6:00. This monthly report contains the statistical data which the BOJ used in its most recent policy meeting. As a minor event, it is unlikely to affect the direction of USD/JPY.
- Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Thursday, 7:00. The indicator provides a snapshot of the strength of the manufacturing sector. The indicator posted again of 28.9% in the February report.
- Bank Lending: Friday, 00:50. Credit levels are closely connected to consumer spending, as increased borrowing usually translate into stronger consumer spending. The indicator has been very steady, posting two consecutive gains of 2.5%.
* All times are GMT
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY started the week at 119.24 and quickly touched a high of 120.36, testing resistance at 119.88 (discussed last week). The pair then dropped to a low of 118.72. USD/JPY closed the week at 118.87.
Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin with resistance at 124.16. This line marked the start of a yen rally in June 2007, which saw USD/JPY drop to the 96 level.
122.19 is the next resistance line.
121.39 remains a strong resistance line.
119.88 was tested as the pair pushed higher early in the week. This line starts the week as an immediate resistance line.
117.94 continues to provide the pair with support.
116.82 is providing strong support and has remained intact since mid-January.
115.85 is the next support line.
The final level for now is 114.19. It has held firm since November 2014.
I remain neutral on USD/JPY
The yen has not strayed far from the symbolic 120 line in recent weeks, and it could be another uneventful week, with no major Japanese releases on this week’s schedule.
In this week’s podcast, we feature an Interview with FXStreet President Francesc Riverola on the industry, volatility and more
Subscribe to Market Movers on iTunes
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
Share
