US troubles are not over in Q1 and they get well into Q2. The ISM Manufacturing PMI remains at 51.5 points, reflecting very slow growth. This is the lowest number since May 2013 – almost two years. The employment component is in contraction zone: below 50 points at 48.3 – an ominous sign towards the NFP.
The USD is down in the initial reaction. Update: EUR/USD is actually sliding as time passes by. -The greenback is gaining ground also against other currencies.
- EUR/USD is down from a high of 1.1288 to 1.1230.
- GBP/USD slips below 1.52
- USD/JPY holds on tight to 120.
- USD/CAD continues rising and hits 1.2175
- AUD/USD is down to 0.7840.
- NZD/USD slips to 0.7550.
Not all the components are terrible: new orders rise to 53.5 points, providing a bit of optimism towards the future.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI, an indicator that provides a first hint towards the Non-Farm Payrolls, was expected to tick up to 52.1 points in April after a disappointing 51.5 points in March.
The US dollar was looking OK towards the release, with the exception of the euro.
Here is the preview: USD/JPY: Trading the US ISM Manufacturing PMI
At the same time, the US released additional figures:
- The final consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan was expected to rise to 96.1 points for April. The actual number is no change: 95.9 points like the initial read.
- Construction Spending carried predictions of +0.5%. The actual number is a drop of 0.6%, also worse than expected.
Earlier, Markit’s final manufacturing PMI printed 54.1 points, a tick lower than 54.2 initially reported.
The US dollar had a turbulent week, suffering from the poor GDP report for Q1 and staging a recovery of sorts against the background of the relatively optimistic Fed decision and the consequent good data.
However, there was currency it totally surrendered against: the euro. EUR/USD staged an amazing rally after breaking the 1.1050 level. It just never stopped.
In our latest podcast we ask: Did the market get it right on the Fed’s hike? And cover the big upcoming events.