USD/JPY bucked the trend of the major currencies, as the yen gained about 140 points last week. The pair ended the week just below 119, its lowest weekly close since April. The upcoming week has nine events. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
Safe haven flows continued boosting the yen in the ongoing uncertainty over China and the Fed hike. US employment numbers were mixed, last week, which only complicates things for the Fed, as it mulls over a rate hike. Manufacturing PMI was a disappointment, slipping to its lowest level since June 2013. Japanese manufacturing and housing numbers were short of expectations, but the yen still posted strong gains against the greenback.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]
USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:
- Leading Indicators: Monday, 5:00. This event is based on 11 economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has already been released. The indicator improved to 107.2% in June, within expectations. The markets are expecting a softer reading in July, with an estimate of 104.9%.
- Current Account: Monday, 23:50. Current Account is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must pay for Japanese goods and services with Japanese yen. The account surplus narrowed to 1.30 trillion yen in June, short of the forecast of 1.41 trillion yen. Little change is expected in the July report, with an estimate of 1.25 trillion yen.
- GDP: Monday, 23:50. GDP is one of the most important economic indicators, and an unexpected reading can lead to immediate movement in USD/JPY. The Q1 report posted a strong gain of 1.0%, beating the estimate of 0.7%. However, the markets are bracing for a decline in GDP in Q2, with a forecast of -0.4%.
- 30-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. The average yield on 30-year bonds was almost unchanged in the August auction, coming in at 1.44%.
- Economy Watcher’s Sentiment: Tuesday, 5:00. The indicator continues to post readings above the 50-point level, indicative of ongoing expansion. In July, the indicator improved slightly to 51.6 points, but this was well short of the estimate of 53.1 points. The upward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 52.1 points in the August report.
- M2 Money Stock: Tuesday, 23:50. The indicator rose to 4.1% in July, within expectations. Another gain of 4.1% is forecast for the August release.
- Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 5:00. Stronger consumer confidence numbers often translate into consumer spending, which is a key driver of economic growth. The indicator continues to post readings below 50, pointing to a pessimistic Japanese consumer. The July release fell to 40.3 points, a 6-month low and well off the estimate of 42.2 points. Little change is expected in the August report.
- Core Machinery Orders: Wednesday, 23:50. This is an important indicator which can affect the direction of USD/JPY. The indicator had an awful June, posting a decline of 7.9%. This was much weaker than the estimate of a 5.3% decline. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in July, with a forecast of a 3.4% gain.
- BSI Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 23:50. This index is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of every reading. In Q1, the index posted a dismal reading of -6.0 points, well off the estimate of 3.2 points. Will we see a positive rebound in the Q2 report?
* All times are GMT
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY opened the week at 121.30 and touched a high of 121.42. The pair then reversed directions, dropping all the way to 118.54, as it tested resistance at 118.68 (discussed last week). USD/JPY closed at 118.97.
Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
With the yen posting sharp gains, we start at lower levels:
124.16 is a strong line of resistance.
123.19 was a support role for most of August but is currently a resistance line.
122.02 is the next line of resistance.
121.39 has switched to a resistance role following the pair’s sharp losses.
120.65 was easily breached and has also reverted to a resistance role.
119.65 is next. This line was a key support level in April.
118.68 was tested and is a weak support line. Will the pair break below it next week?
117.44 is the next support line.
115.85 has remained impact since December 2014.
I am neutral on USD/JPY
The yen had an excellent week, but the dollar could rebound if market speculation about a rate rise heat up. What will the Federal Reserve do? In our opinion, there is a good chance of a “dovish rate hike”.
In our latest podcast, we discuss if the NFP is enough for a Fed hike, drill down Draghi and more:
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
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