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NZD/USD Forecast – Sep. 28 – Oct. 2

The  New Zealand dollar  was pressured lower in a week that saw global worries. Business confidence is the highlight of the week. Will we see new lows?  Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand’s trade balance widened more than expected, crossing the one billion mark. This isn’t supportive of the kiwi. In the US, the dollar fell on weak data but eventually received the bullish boost from Yellen. She made it clear that rates are rising in 2015.

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NZD/USD  daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZDUSD October 2015 technical chart New Zealand dollar fundamental analysis sentiment

  1. Building Consents: Monday, 21:45. While the indicator is quite volatile, it still provides an outlook on the housing sector. After a leap of 20.4% in July, a slide is on the cards for August.
  2. ANZ Business Confidence: Wednesday, 00:00. This important measure of sentiment in the business community dropped in June to negative territory and continued digging deeper since then. The score of -29.1 points reflects  significant pessimism. Yet another drop could be seen now.
  3. ANZ Commodity Prices: Friday, 00:00. Commodity prices  are important for New Zealand’s agricultural exports. After a drop of 5.2% in August, a small bounce is likely for September.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar erased the gains seen last week and dropped to low of 0.6238, still above the cycle low of 0.6209. It later recovered and stabilized, holding above support at 0.6310 (mentioned last week).

Live chart of NZD/USD:

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Technical lines, from top to bottom:

The low of 0.6940 allowed for a temporary bounce.  The round 0.69 level is  switched positions to resistance.

0.6860 was a low point as the pair dropped in June 2015. It is followed by the 0.68 level that worked as resistance when the pair was climbing a few years back.

Close by, the July high of 0.6770 serves as resistance. Quite close by, the high of 0.6740 seen in July is another cap.

It is followed by the round level of 0.67 that is a pivotal line in the range.  The now previous July  low of 0.6650 was a multi-year low and the break below it was not confirmed.

0.6620 is the new 2015 low and for now serves as minor support.  The post crisis low of 0.6560 is still of high importance.

Below, the round 0.65 level is of high importance now. The last line is  0.64886, which was the low both in July and in August – a double bottom.

The new  post crash low of 0.6408 works as important support within the recent range. Below,  0.6310 provides some support after doing so in early September.

0.6255 seems to be a line of stabilization as seen in September after the second blow down.  0.6210 is the  flash crash low.  It is followed by  0.6160 that can be  noted as a post crisis attempt to recover.

I remain  bearish  on  NZD/USD

While the RBNZ may hesitate regarding the next moves and the lower limit of rates, the trend remains clear: more rate cuts in New Zealand and rate hikes coming in the US.

In our latest podcast we explain why the dollar defies the doves

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.