Janet Yellen gave little away yesterday as she made no reference to interest rate policy and then the Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer also kept his cards close to his chest allowing for some profit taking in the dollar. After a day of multiple speeches and remarks from Federal Reserve policy makers, volatility in the FX markets was not as high as one might have expected, but risk aversion in the equity markets set in once again. We are expecting further softness in European equities on the open today in conjunction with weaker commodity markets and heightened expectations of a rate hike from the Fed next month.
US data will remain a focus and we see the release of retail sales at 13.30 GMT which is expected to rise for the month of October and then there’s the Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 15.00 GMT. Better data on these releases could put further pressure on commodity prices as it will only add further weight to the possibility of the Fed moving in December and it would also put more pressure on equity markets which have seen a poor start to November, usually a bullish month by historical standards.
Further reading:
EUR/USD: Target And Strategy Into Year-End – Nomura
USD pressured – awaiting grand close- Live Market Open from 8:00 GMT
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