AUD/USD had an uneventful week, as the pair finished the week almost unchanged. AUD/USD closed at 0.7190. It’s a very busy week, with 15 events on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
US economic indicators were a mix last week. Unemployment claims dropped sharply, as the US labor market remains strong. However, housing and consumer data missed expectations. Still, the US economy is in good shape so a rate hike in December remains a likely possibility.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- MI Inflation Gauge: Sunday, 23:30. This monthly index helps analysts track official CPI, which is released on a quarterly basis. The indicator dipped to 0.0% in October, the first time it has failed to post a gain in eight months.
- HIA New Home Sales: Monday, 00:00. The indicator has been alternating between gains and losses in the second half of 2015. In September, the indicator disappointed with a sharp drop of 4.0%. Will we see a gain in the October release?
- Company Operating Profits: Monday, 00:30. The indicator is released on a quarterly basis, magnifying the impact of each release. The Q2 release posted a decline of 1.9%, matching the forecast. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the Q3 report, with an estimate of a1.1% gain.
- AIG Manufacturing Index: Monday, 22:30. The index slipped in October to 50.2 points, just above the 50-point level which separates expansion from contraction. The indicator has posted four straight readings above 50 points.
- Building Approvals: Tuesday, 00:30. Building Approvals has alternated between gains and losses throughout the year. The September release posted a strong gain of 2.2%, above the estimate of 1.8%. The markets are braced for a decline of 2.4% decline in the October release.
- Current Account: Tuesday, 00:30. The current account deficit ballooned in Q2, coming in at A$-19.0 billion, well above the estimate of A$-15.9 billion. The markets are expecting an improvement in the Q3 report, with an estimate of A$-16.6 billion.
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:00. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese data such as Manufacturing PMI, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. The indicator has been very close to the 50-point level, which separates contraction from expansion, throughout 2015. More of the same is expected in the November reading, with a forecast of 49.9 points.
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:45. This PMI has posted only one reading above the 50-point line in 2015. The indicator improved to 48.3 points in October, beating the estimate of 47.7 points. Another reading of 48.3 points is expected in the November report.
- RBA Cash Rate: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA has maintained interest rates at the round number of 2.00% for seven months, and no changed is expected in the December rate decision. A surprise cut by the RBA to 1.75% would likely send the Aussie downward.
- Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 5:30. Weaker demand from China and other emerging economies has led to lower commodity prices, with a negative effect on Australia’s resource based-economy. Commodity Prices continue to soften, with the October report coming in at -19.8%.
- RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks: Tuesday, 23:30. Stevens will speak at a conference in Perth. The markets will be looking for clues regarding the RBA’s future monetary policy.
- GDP: Wednesday, 00:30. GDP is one of the most important economic indicators, and an unexpected reading can have a strong impact on the movement of AUD/USD. GDP slipped to just 0.2% in Q2, shy of the estimate of 0.4%. The markets are expecting a sharp improvement in the third quarter, with an estimate of 0.7%.
- AIG Services Index: Wednesday, 22:30. This minor index dipped to 48.9 points in October, down from 52.3 points a month earlier. This marked its weakest reading in 10 months.
- Trade Balance: Thursday, 00:30. Australia’s trade deficit narrowed to A$2.32 billion in September, better than the forecast of A$2.85 billion. This was the smallest deficit recorded since March. The markets are expecting a higher deficit in October, with an estimate of A$2.61 billion.
- Retail Sales: Friday, 00:30. Retail Sales is a key indicator and should be treated as a market-mover by traders. The indicator has been steady, posting two straight readings of 0.4%,matching the forecast each time. More of the same is expected in the October release, with another estimate of 0.4%.
* All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD started the week at 0.7225 and climbed to a high of 0.7283. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 0.7158, testing support at 0.7160 (discussed last week). The pair closed at 0.7191.
Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
0.7664 is a strong resistance line.
0.7533 has remained intact since July.
0.7440 capped the pair in August and remains key resistance.
0.7284 is an immediate resistance line.
0.716o is a weak support line. It was tested during the week as the pair moved higher before retracting.
0.7100 is next.
The round number of 0.70 worked as a cushion in August and is a strong support level.
0.69 has provided support since September.
0.6775 is the final line for now. It has provided support since March 2009.
I am bearish on AUD/USD
With the Federal Reserve likely to raise rates at this week’s meeting, the greenback is poised to post gains against its rivals, even if Nonfarm Payrolls soften in the November report. The Australian economy has been limping, and if the RBA Rate Statement makes reference to weak growth or low inflation, the Australian dollar could lose ground.
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Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.
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