Home USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 28 – Apr. 1

The Canadian dollar  posted sharp losses  last week,  dropping 200 points. USD/CAD closed at 1.3255.   This  week’s key event is GDP.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The  US dollar gained ground  last week on  hawkish comments  released by various Fed officials, leaving an April hike  a real possibility  and contrasting the  very dovish sentiment aired in the decision from the previous week. US Final GDP beat expectations with a gain of 1.4% in the four quarter.


USD/CAD daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDCAD_ Daily Chart Mar28-Apr1

  1. RMPI: Tuesday, 12:30. The manufacturing inflation indicator posted a third straight decline, coming in at -0.4%. The downward trend is expected to continue in February, with a forecast of -0.8%.
  2. BOC Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson Speaks: Tuesday, 18:35. Patterson will speak at an event in Edmonton. A hawkish speech is bullish for the Canadian dollar.
  3. GDP: Thursday, 12:30. Canada releases GDP every month, unlike other countries that release the indicator on a quarterly basis. GDP dipped to 0.2% in January, and the estimate for February stands at 0.3%.
  4. RBC Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 13:30. This PMI continues to point to contraction in the manufacturing sector. The February release came in at 49.4 points, almost unchanged from the reading of 49.3 points a month earlier.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3047 and quickly  touched a  low of 1.3021. The pair  climbed to a high of 1.3296, as resistance held firm at 1.3353 (discussed last week). USD/CAD closed the week at 1.3255.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines, from top to bottom

With USD/CAD climbing higher, we start with resistance at higher levels:

1.3757 is a strong resistance line.

1.3620 has held firm since late February.

1.3457 is the next resistance line.

1.3353 held firm in resistance as the pair posted strong gains last week.

13174 was a cap in October 2015.

1.3064 is protecting the symbolic 1.30 line.

The round  number of 1.2900 was a cushion in October.

1.2780 is the  final  support level for now.

I am  bullish on USD/CAD

Last week’s  flurry of hawkish statements from Fed members indicates that the Fed is actually not so dovish, which is bullish for the US dollar. We’ll hear from Janet Yellen next week, and the US dollar could gain ground if she leaves the door open to an April or June rate hike. A weak Canadian GDP could weigh on the Canadian dollar.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.