In today’s Forex Forecast, Nicole Elliott, Private Investor and Technical Analyst, shares the outlook for USD Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD.
“Last 6 to 10 weeks has seen a shift in value in the USD – USD is currently towards the weaker end of its range against many currencies and its USD Index basket, won’t take much to have a serious review of current positioning which is still pro-USD and anti-emerging markets”
“US Treasury bills out to the end of July are yielding less than 25 basis points, shows us the major disconnect between where central banks think things are going, where economies are going and where market makers think things are going”
“If the Fed can’t control interest rates here then how will they deal with further rate hikes with the improving US economy”
“EUR/USD seeing the Euro weakening against the USD throughout 2014, been in a massive rectangle recently and going nowhere fast, potential rectangle base, if we start holding above 1.15 that would constitute a significant reversal towards Euro weakness and time to go the other way”
“EUR/USD – First target would be 10 cents to 1.25, then 1.29 on the length of the rectangle”
“USD/JPY – Hit trendline resistance which has been there since 1990 at 125, couldn’t hold that, ducked down again in a head and shoulders top, broken down already through the cloud and to a new low this week sub 111, 110.50 is a 61% retracement of the last leg up, lot more to go down to the 100 area, another arrow misfired from Japan”
“USD/CAD – Anything over 1.40 is difficult to sustain in the long-term, support at 1.14 are the new parameters”