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UK data looks bad – GBP/USD turns down

All the UK figures missed expectations and they were also accompanied by downwards revisions across the board.  Manufacturing fell 1.1% m/m and 1.8% y/y.  Industrial output dropped 0.3% m/m and 0.5% y/y. The trade balance stands at -11.964 billion but at least it’s not worse than the  significantly downwards revised figure for the previous month, to 12.157 billion. This doesn’t look good, no matter how you look at it.

GBP/USD is reversing its gains, dropping to just above 1.41.

The UK trade balance was expected to remain more or less unchanged at -10.2 billion, a significant  deficit. Manufacturing production was expected to drop 0.2% after a rise of 0.7%. Year over year, a slide of 0.7% expected after 0.1%. The industrial output number was predicted to rise 0.1% after +0.3% and y/y, a flat read was predicted to rise 0.2%.

GBP/USD was front running the publication with a nice rise from support at 1.4050 all the way to 1.4132.

The pound still suffers from  political trouble more than any indicator. The Panama Papers implicate UK PM David Cameron in offshore holdings.  This complicates the already problematic campaign to prevent a British exit from the European Union.

This is the cable 30 minute chart:

GBPUSD April 8 2016 trade balance industrial output

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.