Both phone and online polls conducted by BMG Research showed significant gains for the Leave camp. with a smaller lead for Remain in the phone poll (7% or 3%, depending on the undecideds) and a lead for Leave of around 10% in the online one. The previous poll was held in late May and showed 45% against 44% for Leave, a very tight race.
Update: Bremain Momentum – Will GBP jump?
The poll was conducted before the murder of MP Jo Cox (that triggered the big GBP turnaround) but was released after markets closed for the weekend. It is further evidence of a the Brexit momentum, but things may or may not have changed after the tragic event on Thursday.
Here is a quote from the report:
The poll, by BMG for The Herald, showed Remain with 53.3 percent support and Leave with 46.7 percent. The poll of 1,064 adults, conducted June 10-15, excluded the “don’t knows.”
But a separate online poll by BMG showed the Leave camp leading by 10 points, with Leave at 55.5 percent support and Remain at 44.5 percent.
We think that the murder has a significant impact on the mood and will have an impact on British politics for a long time. However, it will probably have a limited effect on voters. While the vast majority of Brexiteers are shocked by the event, they are most likely to vote as they thought: a British exit from the European Union.
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