Reports in France say that the center-right candidate Françios Fillon is about to quit the race after his wife Penelope was questioned by police. He was forced to cancel an event on the campaign trail. He was questioned by judges according to other reports. His campaign was undermined by suspicion that he employed his wife and sons as parliamentary aids, spending public money while they haven’t been doing any work at all.
Fillon leads the center-right Les Republicans, the center-right party. He won the primaries late in 2016 in a race that was seen as the “real race”. The center-left Socialists were devastated by the presidency of Françios Hollande. Since then, many things have changed.
Hollande quit the race, opening the race to a primary contest in which the hard-left candidate Benoit Hamon won the race. And Hollande’s former economy minister Emmanuel Macron gained momentum as an independent, centrist candidate. He recently received another boost to his efforts: Bayrou, another centrist, announced he would quit and support Macron.
The big elephant in the room is Marine Le Pen. The extreme right candidate is predicted to win the first round. However, any candidate that will confront her is projected to win according to the polls. If Fillon indeed quits, this will provide another boost to Macron in the first round. While the center-right could produce a new candidate such as Juppe, the current situation is of turmoil.
Opinion polls released this week show Macron beating Le Pen by a wide margin of around 60% against 40%. However, there is still a lot of time: the first round is held on April 23rd and the second round on May 7th.
Markets favor Macron, so the higher chances should boost the euro.
More: EUR/USD: Politics To Remain A Source Of Nervousness – SocGen
Here is how it looks on the chart. EUR/USD suffered from Deadly Dudley – hawkish comments from the Fed regarding a rate hike in March.
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