Some became worried about the second round of the French elections. Centrist Emmanuel Macron had already commanded a 28% gap before topping the first round and it then fell to only 18%. And while 18% is a hefty margin, the undecideds are left unaccounted for, leaving room for swings.
But now, the latest Opinionway poll shows the gap ticking back up. Macron wins 61% of support against 39% for extremist Marine Le Pen. Even if the actual vote is closer, it is now harder to imagine President Le Pen. Another poll by IFOP showed Macron at 60% against Le Pen at 40%.
Markets were worried about Le Pen becoming president and also about a run-off between radical-left Melenchon and Le Pen. The Front Nationale candidates talked about “Frexit”: a French exit of the European Union. Needless to say, there is no euro without France.
French elections – all the updates in one place
EUR/USD very steady around 1.09
The world’s most popular currency pair is quite stable, hugging the 1.09 level. The wider range is 1.0830 to 1.0950, the post first-round trading area.
Most European markets are on holiday today, celebrating May Day and that explains the listless trading. The US and Canada are trading as usual and this could provide more volatility.
The US dollar enjoyed some strength thanks to a deal averting a government shutdown, but the gains were mostly seen against the yen. The Fed’s favorite inflation figure and the ISM Manufacturing PMI stand out.
More: EUR/USD: Fair Value Next 2 Technical Targets – SocGen
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