EUR/USD drifted slightly higher in a week that saw mounting speculation about the next move by the ECB and ongoing tensions in Catalonia. Final inflation figures and a key German survey stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
The ECB may halve the QE program to 30 billion in 2018. The speculation mounts towards the October 26th decision. Any lower number boosts the euro. In Catalonia, President Puigdemont announced a “suspended independence” and his move was answered by an ultimatum from Spanish PM Rajoy. Catalonia is requested to deny it has declared independence or face a suspension of the autonomy. In the US, the data was quite good but the Fed has some doubts about December.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”EURUSDUpdate”/]EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- German WPI: Monday, 6:00. The Wholesale Price Index serves as another indicator for inflation. It rose by 0.3% in August and is expected to increase by 0.4% in September.
- Trade Balance: Monday, 9:00. The euro-zone enjoys trade surpluses thanks to German exports. A slightly disappointing surplus of 18.6 was recorded in July. A surplus of 20.3 billion is predicted now.
- CPI (final): Tuesday, 9:00. According to the initial figures for September, headline inflation picked up to 1.5% y/y but core inflation was unable to hold onto higher levels and slipped to 1.1%. The final numbers are expected to confirm the flash ones, but any change will be closely watched by the ECB. Any downgrade could result in a slower reduction of QE while an upgrade could result in a quicker pace.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. This early, 300-strong German business survey beat expectations last month and jumped to 17 points. While there are political worries in Europe, Germany seems to be doing quite alright. Another rise to 20.3 is on the cards. The all-European measure stood at 31.7 points.
- Mario Draghi talks: Wednesday, 8:10. The President of the ECB will be speaking in Frankfurt, at the ECB conference. On his home turf, Draghi could provide a hint about the upcoming ECB meeting the following week.
- German PPI: Friday, 6:00. Producer prices advanced by 0.2% in Germany back in August. Prices at factory gates feed into consumer inflation. A small rise of 0.1% is on the cards.
- Current Account: Friday, 8:00. Similar to the narrower current account measure, the 19-country currency bloc has a significant surplus. In July, the surplus surprised with 25.1 billion. A wider surplus of 26.2 billion is predicted.
* All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar continued moving higher after bouncing from the 1.1670 level (mentioned last week).
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.2240 is a high line from 2014. The cycle high of 1.2090 looms above.
1.20 is the obvious round level and also worked as resistance in September. 1.1910 held the pair down back in August.
1.1830 capped the pair in August and in October while working as support in September.
1.1670 was a swing low in October.
It is followed by the round number of 1.15. 1.1445 is the June 2017 peak and immediate resistance.
I am bullish on EUR/USD
After the much-needed consolidation phase, the pair could resume its uptrend. Further talk and rumors about QE tapering could give a boost to the common currency.
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Further reading:
- GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
- USD/JPY forecast – analysis for dollar/yen
- AUD/USD forecast – the outlook for the Aussie dollar.
- USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions
- Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.
Safe trading!
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