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US core CPI rises to 1.8%, retail sales mixed – USD wobbles

Mixed data from the US: core CPI is up to 1.8% y/y, better than expected. On the other hand, the control group of the retail sales misses with 0.3%, below expectations. The retail sales numbers are accompanied by upward revisions while most inflation numbers are bang on expectations.

The USD slightly stronger in the immediate aftermath but resumes its falls just after that on the mixed data. The initial reaction of “it could have been worse” was followed by an acknowledgment that inflation is not going anywhere fast, and this is not that greenback friendly.

October inflation and retail sales (updated)

  • CPI m/m: previous 0.5%, expected 0.1%, actual: 0.1%
  • Core CPI m/m: prev. 0.2%, exp. 0.1%, actual: 0.2$
  • Core CPI y/y: prev. 1.7%, exp. 1.7%, actual: 1.8%
  • CPI y/y: prev. 2.2%, exp. 2%, actual: 2%
  • Retal average weekly earnings up 0.4% y/y against 0.6% previously.
  • Retail sales: prev. 1.6%, exp. 0%, actual: 0.2%
  • Core retail sales: prev. 1%, exp. 0.2%, actual: 0.1%
  • Retail control group: prev. 0.4%, exp. 0.4%, actual:   0.3%, but with an upward revision.
  • Retail ex. gas/autos: prev. 0.5%, actual: 0.3%
  • NY Fed manufacturing: prev. 30.2, exp. 26, actual: 19.4.

Currency movements

More:  EUR/USD: 4 Reasons Why The USD Is Not Stronger?


The United States was expected to report that core CPI is stuck at 1.7% once again, remaining the weak point in the picture in the US economic picture. Retail sales were expected to remain unchanged on the headline and 0.4% in the control group.

The US dollar was on the back foot against the euro and the yen while gaining ground against commodity currencies. It was stable against the pound.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.