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NZD: Fade Weakens If RBNZ Goes Negative On Rates – Citi

The New Zealand Central bank meets on Wednesday. What is the outlook for the New Zealand dollar?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Citi sees a scope for NZD to shoot higher after the RBNZ policy meeting this week.  

“Positioning is so one-sided that it alone dictates higher levels over this week if the USD remains under pressure from negative rates implications. That pricing also makes  the NZ curve vulnerable if the market goes after those rates/central banks that suggest negative rates a real and viable alternative. We will get a better sense of where Orr is at on Wednesday and the market is positioned to be underwhelmed,” Citi notes.

“Overnight headlines that lockdown restrictions will be further relaxed with retail and public spaces reopening from May 15 (schools – May 18, bars – May 21) reinforces our view that the country will be firing quickly, and  negates the case for negative rates ahead of RBNZ this week,” Citi adds.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.