USD: Expecting A ‘Slightly But Only Slightly’ Dovish Fed Powell Speech On Thurs; What’s The Trade? – Citi

All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who delivers a speech at Jackson Hole later on Thursday. What can we expect from the speech?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Citi  discusses its expectations for Fed’s  Powell’s virtual Jackson Hole opener on Thursday.

“We expect a slightly, but only slightly, dovish Fed Chair Powell speech, relative to market expectations, on August 27 at the Jackson Hole symposium  ahead of the September 18 FOMC meeting. We expect the speech to support aiming for temporary inflation overshoots, in line with soft inflation averaging, but without previewing the full outcome of the Fed’s Strategy Review, but there is also scope for dovish surprises,” Citi notes.

“Our base case remains for lower USD, higher EURUSD, lower US real yields and higher prices of risk assets and precious metals.  Upcoming Fed-speak remains important, notably Vice Chair Clarida on August 31,” Citi adds.

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